Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2019 Mar;13(2):166-175. doi: 10.1111/irv.12617. Epub 2018 Dec 13.
Influenza seriously affects the health of children, yet little evidence is available on the association between meteorological factors and the occurrence of influenza among children in subtropical regions. The current study aimed to explore the effects of meteorological factors on influenza among children in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China.
The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to assess the effects of meteorological factors on children influenza occurrence in Guangzhou, China. Daily number of influenza cases among children aged 0-17 years from 2013 to 2017 were obtained from the National Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.
Mean temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure were associated with influenza cases. The relative risks (RRs) increased as temperature fell below 20°C. The relationship between relative humidity and influenza cases could be described with a U-shaped curve, and the RRs increased if relative humidity was lower than 50% or higher than 80%. The risk of influenza increased with rising atmospheric pressure with 1005 hPa as the break point. The cold effect, humid effect, dry effect, high-pressure effect, and low-pressure effect showed statistical significance both in female and male. The cold effect increased with age. The humid-effect affects all age ranges of children, but dry effect mainly affected 4-14 years old. High-pressure effect mainly affected the 0-3 years old, whereas low-pressure effect protected preschool children aged 0-6 years old.
Mean temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure might be important predictors of the influenza occurrence among children in Guangzhou.
流感严重影响儿童健康，但在亚热带地区，有关气象因素与儿童流感发生之间的关系的证据很少。本研究旨在探讨气象因素对中国广州地区儿童流感发生的影响。
采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）评估气象因素对中国广州地区儿童流感发生的影响。从 2013 年至 2017 年，从国家疾病预防控制信息系统中获取了 0-17 岁儿童每日流感病例数。
平均温度、相对湿度和大气压与流感病例有关。当温度低于 20°C 时，相对风险（RR）增加。相对湿度与流感病例之间的关系可以用 U 形曲线来描述，如果相对湿度低于 50%或高于 80%，RR 会增加。随着大气压的升高，流感的风险增加，以 1005 hPa 为临界点。冷效应、湿效应、干效应、高气压效应和低气压效应在女性和男性中均具有统计学意义。冷效应随年龄增长而增加。湿效应影响所有年龄段的儿童，但干效应主要影响 4-14 岁儿童。高气压效应主要影响 0-3 岁儿童，而低气压效应则保护 0-6 岁的学龄前儿童。
平均温度、相对湿度和大气压可能是广州地区儿童流感发生的重要预测指标。
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