Berglund M, Smith G J
Department of Psychiatry, Lund University, Sweden.
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1988 May;77(5):504-10. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1988.tb05161.x.
Prediction of suicides was made on the basis of 99 psychiatric patients included in a study of anti-depressive therapy during 1961-63. These patients were followed up until 31 December 1984. Eight of them committed suicide. The prediction was based on two test methods, the Serial Colour-Word Test (CWT), which registers style of adaptation to a conflicting situation, and the Meta-Contrast Technique (MCT), where incongruous or threatening stimulation is introduced by degrees into neutral pictures and various defense misrepresentations of the threat are spotted. Both tests could predict suicide, but MCT was most successful. The sensitivity of the test was 0.80 and the specificity 0.75. The main risk symptom appeared to be depressive retardation together with lack of functional defensive structures.
对自杀的预测是基于1961年至1963年期间一项抗抑郁治疗研究中的99名精神科患者做出的。这些患者一直被随访到1984年12月31日。其中8人自杀。该预测基于两种测试方法，即连续颜色词测试（CWT），它记录对冲突情境的适应方式；以及元对比技术（MCT），在该技术中，不协调或具有威胁性的刺激被逐步引入中性图片中，并发现对威胁的各种防御性错误表征。两种测试都能预测自杀，但MCT最为成功。该测试的敏感性为0.80，特异性为0.75。主要的风险症状似乎是抑郁性迟缓以及缺乏功能性防御结构。
