Department of Engineering and Natural Science, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway.
Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand.
PLoS One. 2018 Nov 19;13(11):e0207796. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207796. eCollection 2018.
Climate change affects agriculture through a range of direct and indirect pathways. These include direct changes to impacts of pests and diseases on crops and indirect effects produced by interactions between organisms. It remains unclear whether the net effects of these biotic influences will be beneficial or detrimental to crop yield because few studies consider multiple interactions within communities and the net effects of these on community structure and yield. In this study, we created two experimental grapevine communities in field cages, and quantified direct and indirect effects of key pest and disease species under simulated climate change conditions (elevated temperature and reduced humidity). We found that the net impact of simulated climate change on total yield differed for the two communities, with increased yield in one community and no effect in the other. These effects, and the interactions between pests and pathogens, may also have been affected by the prevailing abiotic conditions, and we discuss how these may contribute to our findings. These results demonstrate that future research should consider more of the interactions between key organisms affecting crops under varying abiotic conditions to help generate future recommendations for adapting to the effects of climate change.
气候变化通过一系列直接和间接途径影响农业。这些途径包括对作物病虫害影响的直接变化，以及生物之间相互作用产生的间接影响。由于很少有研究同时考虑群落内的多种相互作用以及这些相互作用对群落结构和产量的净效应，因此气候变化对作物产量的净影响是有利还是有害仍不清楚。在这项研究中，我们在田间笼中创建了两个实验性的葡萄群落，并在模拟的气候变化条件（升高的温度和降低的湿度）下量化了关键病虫害物种的直接和间接影响。我们发现，模拟气候变化对两个群落的总产量的净影响不同，一个群落的产量增加，另一个群落没有影响。这些影响以及病虫害之间的相互作用，也可能受到普遍的非生物条件的影响，我们讨论了这些条件如何影响我们的研究结果。这些结果表明，未来的研究应该考虑更多影响作物的关键生物之间的相互作用，以适应气候变化的影响，为未来的适应建议提供帮助。
