What biologic factors predict for transformation to AML?

Transformation of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) into secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) is defined by an arbitrary boundary of ≥20% bone marrow blasts but does not necessarily reflect a defined biological transition. The more obvious distinction lies between MDS patients that have an isolated bone marrow failure phenotype and those with excess blasts. Subtyping of MDS might be more accurately stratified into clonal cytopenias and oligoblastic leukemias, using the degree of dysplasia and blast percentage as risk features, respectively, rather than as diagnostic criteria. Transformation from MDS to sAML often involves clonal evolution or expansion of existing subclones that can be assessed by changes in variant allele frequencies of the somatic mutations that define them. There are a number of predictors for transformation that have been identified: these include mutations of genes in growth signaling pathways (NRAS, KRAS, PTPN11, FLT3), mutations in genes more commonly observed in AML (NPM1, WT1, IDH2), certain cytogenetic abnormalities (monosomy 7, complex karyotype, loss of 17p). Gene expression profiles that divide MDS into two major categories identify a progenitor gene signature subtype associated with a high risk of AML transformation. Assessing for these genetic abnormalities may better identify MDS patients at greatest risk of transformation.