Kotlaja Marijana M, Carson Jennifer V
1 University of Nebraska Omaha, NE, USA.
2 University of Central Missouri, Warrensburg, MO, USA.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2019 May;63(7):1082-1099. doi: 10.1177/0306624X18814184. Epub 2018 Nov 27.
Prior research that assesses the relationship between cannabis policy and prevalence rates has yielded mixed results, perhaps due to the varying rigor of these investigations. Addressing some of these issues in rigor and informed by a rational choice theory (RCT), we hypothesize that those policies on the more punitive end of McDonald and colleagues' classification will be most effective. Examining legislation in 27 countries utilizing the Second International Self-Report Delinquency Study (ISRD-2) through hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) models with both individual- and country-level controls, we find little support for these hypotheses. Instead, results from our analysis largely indicate that the variation in country prevalence rates from 2005 to 2007 was not significantly related to cannabis control policy. We comment on possible policy implications for these preliminary results.
先前评估大麻政策与流行率之间关系的研究结果不一，这可能是由于这些调查的严谨程度各不相同。为了解决其中一些严谨性问题，并以理性选择理论（RCT）为依据，我们假设，在麦克唐纳及其同事的分类中，处于惩罚性更强一端的那些政策将最为有效。通过二级线性模型（HLM）模型，在纳入个人层面和国家层面控制因素的情况下，利用第二次国际自我报告犯罪行为研究（ISRD-2）对27个国家的立法进行研究，我们发现这些假设几乎得不到支持。相反，我们的分析结果很大程度上表明，2005年至2007年各国流行率的差异与大麻控制政策并无显著关联。我们对这些初步结果可能产生的政策影响进行了评论。
