Sentinel vascular access monitoring after endovascular intervention predicts access outcome.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The vascular access pressure ratio test identifies dialysis vascular access dysfunction when three consecutive vascular access pressure ratios are >0.55. We tested whether the magnitude of the decline in vascular access pressure ratio 1-week post-intervention could alert of subsequent access failure.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND MEASUREMENTS: The retrospective study included all vascular access procedures at one institution from March 2014 to June 2016. Data included demographics, comorbidities, vascular access features, %ΔVAPR = ((Pre-Post)/Pre] × 100% assessed within the first 2 weeks post-percutaneous transluminal balloon angioplasty, time-to-next procedure, and patency. The log-rank test compared the area under the curve, receiver operating curve, Kaplan-Meier arteriovenous graft and arteriovenous fistula survival curves. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard (CP) model was used to determine the association of %ΔVAPR with access patency.

RESULTS

Analysis of 138 subjects (females 51%; Black 87%) included 64 arteriovenous fistulas with 104 angioplasties and 74 arteriovenous grafts with 134 angioplasties. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for fistula failure at 3 months was 0.59, with optimal screening characteristics of 33.3%, sensitivity of 56.1%, and specificity of 63.2%. Arteriovenous fistula with <33.3% decline compared to >33.3% required earlier subsequent procedure (136 vs 231 days), lower survival on Kaplan-Meier analysis (P = 0.01), and twofold greater risk of failure (P = .006). Area under the receiver operating characteristic for arteriovenous graft failure at 3 months had a sensitivity of 52.3% and specificity of 67.4%. Arteriovenous graft with a post-intervention vascular access pressure ratio decline of <28.8% also required earlier subsequent procedure (144 vs 189 days), lower survival on Kaplan-Meier (P = 0.04), and a 59% higher risk for failure. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for combined access failure (arteriovenous fistula + arteriovenous graft) at 3 months had an optimal cut-point value of 31.2%, a sensitivity of 54.6%, and a specificity of 63.1%. Access with a <31.2% drop had a 62% increase in the risk of failure (hazard ratio 1.62; confidence interval 1.16, 2.27; P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

The magnitude of post-intervention reduction in vascular access pressure ratio provides a novel predictive measure of access outcomes.