Cancer Council New South Wales, Kings Cross, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
School of Business, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Tob Control. 2019 Dec;28(e2):e86-e91. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054577. Epub 2018 Nov 28.
Despite claims by tobacco companies that plain packaging would lead to lower cigarette prices, recommended and observed real cigarette prices in Australia rose in the 9-11 months after plain packaging was introduced. However, little is known about trends in prices longer term. In this report, we assess whether inflation (Consumer Price Index; CPI) and tax adjusted ('CPI-tax-adjusted') prices of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand changed in the 3-year period after plain packaging, and whether price changes were associated with retailer characteristics.
Cigarette prices were ascertained from a panel of tobacco retailers at three time points: (1) in November 2012 (n=857) (before full implementation of plain packaging, compulsory in retail outlets from December 2012), (2) between October 2014 and February 2015 (n=789) and (3) between November 2015 and March 2016 (n=579). Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate percentage change in mean CPI/tax-adjusted cigarette prices over time.
CPI/tax-adjusted adjusted mean stick prices rose by 13.7% (95% CI 13.0 to 16.0) and 15.2% (95% CI 14.3 to 16.0) at 2.1 and 3.1 years after plain packaging was introduced, respectively. Increases in mean CPI/tax-adjusted stick prices varied by outlet type (p<0.001), socioeconomic status (p=0.013) and remoteness of retailer's area (p=0.028) and whether twin packs were sold (p=0.009).
Contrary to tobacco company predictions of a fall in prices, the price of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand increased significantly in the 3 years after plain packaging was introduced, and these increases were above the combined effects of inflation and increases in excise/customs duty.
尽管烟草公司声称平装会导致香烟价格下降，但在平装推出后的 9-11 个月，澳大利亚建议和观察到的实际香烟价格上涨。然而，关于更长期的价格趋势知之甚少。在本报告中，我们评估了在平装推出后的 3 年内，市场领先的澳大利亚香烟品牌的通胀（消费者价格指数；CPI）和税收调整（“CPI 税收调整”）价格是否发生变化，以及价格变化是否与零售商特征有关。
从一个烟草零售商小组中确定了香烟价格，在三个时间点进行了调查：（1）2012 年 11 月（n=857）（在 2012 年 12 月全面实施平装之前），（2）2014 年 10 月至 2015 年 2 月之间（n=789）和（3）2015 年 11 月至 2016 年 3 月之间（n=579）。使用广义估计方程来估计平均 CPI/税收调整后的香烟价格随时间的百分比变化。
CPI/税收调整后的平均棒价格分别在平装推出后 2.1 年和 3.1 年时上涨了 13.7%（95%CI 13.0 至 16.0）和 15.2%（95%CI 14.3 至 16.0）。平均 CPI/税收调整后的棒价格的增加因销售点类型（p<0.001）、社会经济地位（p=0.013）和零售商所在地区的偏远程度（p=0.028）以及是否销售双胞胎包装（p=0.009）而异。
与烟草公司预测的价格下降相反，在平装推出后的 3 年内，市场领先的澳大利亚香烟品牌的价格显著上涨，而且这些涨幅超过了通货膨胀和消费税/关税增加的综合影响。
