基于影像的机器学习方法预测临床孤立综合征向多发性硬化症的转化。
Predicting conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis-An imaging-based machine learning approach.
机构信息
Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Ismaninger Strasse 22, 81675 Munich, Germany.
Department of Neurology, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Ismaninger Strasse 22, 81675 Munich, Germany; TUM-NIC, NeuroImaging Center, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Ismaninger Strasse 22, 81675 Munich, Germany.
出版信息
Neuroimage Clin. 2019;21:101593. doi: 10.1016/j.nicl.2018.11.003. Epub 2018 Nov 5.
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans play a pivotal role in the evaluation of patients presenting with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), as these may depict brain lesions suggestive of an inflammatory cause. We hypothesized that it is possible to predict the conversion from CIS to multiple sclerosis (MS) based on the baseline MRI scan by studying image features of these lesions. We analyzed 84 patients diagnosed with CIS from a prospective observational single center cohort. The patients were followed up for at least three years. Conversion to MS was defined according to the 2010 McDonald criteria. Brain lesions were segmented based on 3D FLAIR and 3D T1 images. We generated brain lesion masks by a computer assisted manual segmentation. We also generated a set of automated segmentations using the Lesion Segmentation Toolbox for SPM to assess the influence of different segmentation methods. Shape and brightness features were automatically calculated from the segmented masks and used as input data to train an oblique random forest classifier. Prediction accuracies of the resulting model were validated through a three-fold cross-validation. Conversion from CIS to MS occurred in 66 of 84 patients (79%). The conversion or non-conversion was predicted correctly in 71 patients based on shape features derived from the computer assisted manual segmentation masks (84.5% accuracy). This predictor was more accurate than predicting conversion using dissemination in space at baseline according to the 2010 McDonald criteria (75% accuracy). While shape features strongly contributed to the accuracy of the predictor, including intensity features did not further improve performance. As patients who convert to definite MS benefit from early treatment, an early classification model is highly desirable. Our study shows that shape parameters of lesions can contribute to predicting the future course of CIS patients more accurately.
磁共振成像(MRI)扫描在评估出现临床孤立综合征(CIS)的患者中起着至关重要的作用,因为这些扫描可能显示出提示炎症原因的脑部病变。我们假设通过研究这些病变的图像特征,基于基线 MRI 扫描可以预测从 CIS 向多发性硬化症(MS)的转化。我们分析了来自前瞻性观察性单中心队列的 84 例诊断为 CIS 的患者。这些患者至少随访了三年。根据 2010 年 McDonald 标准,将 MS 转化定义为符合 MS 诊断标准。基于 3D FLAIR 和 3D T1 图像对脑病变进行分段。我们通过计算机辅助手动分割生成脑病变掩模。我们还使用 SPM 的 Lesion Segmentation Toolbox 生成了一组自动分割,以评估不同分割方法的影响。从分割掩模中自动计算形状和亮度特征,并将其用作输入数据来训练斜交随机森林分类器。通过三折交叉验证验证了所得模型的预测准确性。在 84 例患者中,有 66 例(79%)从 CIS 转化为 MS。基于从计算机辅助手动分割掩模中提取的形状特征,正确预测了 71 例患者的转化或不转化(84.5%的准确性)。与根据 2010 年 McDonald 标准预测基线时空间弥散的转化(75%的准确性)相比,该预测器更准确。虽然形状特征对预测器的准确性有很大贡献,但包括强度特征并不能进一步提高性能。由于转化为明确 MS 的患者受益于早期治疗,因此非常需要早期分类模型。我们的研究表明,病变的形状参数可以更准确地预测 CIS 患者的未来病程。