Saitz Richard, Heeren Timothy C, Zha Wenxing, Hingson Ralph
Department of Community Health Sciences, Boston University School of Public Health; Clinical Addiction Research and Education Unit, Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA.
Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
J Subst Use. 2019;24(1):41-46. doi: 10.1080/14659891.2018.1497101. Epub 2018 Jul 17.
The objective of this research was to study transitions to and from at-risk alcohol use.
Logistic regression analyses (done 2015-2016) assessed transitions to and from past-year at-risk drinking in a representative sample of U.S. adults surveyed twice (in 2001-2 and 2004-5).
Among 34,653 adults, 28% reported at-risk use at time 1. Of those, 73% had at-risk use at time 2. Of those without at-risk use at time 1, 15% reported at-risk use at time 2. Positive high-risk drinking transition predictors were, at time 1, being young, male, white, childless, in good to excellent health, ever smoking, using drugs, military membership (time 1 but not 2), and becoming divorced or separated by time 2. Positive low-risk drinking transition predictors were being elderly (age ≥65), female, non-white, never smoking or using drugs, no alcohol use disorder, alcohol treatment, and, after time 1, having children.
Many adults transition to and from at-risk alcohol use; youth is the strongest positive predictor of transition to at-risk and not transitioning to low-risk drinking. Persons transitioning to legal drinking age are most likely to transition to high-risk and least likely to low-risk drinking.
本研究的目的是研究有风险饮酒行为的转变情况，包括转变为有风险饮酒以及从有风险饮酒转变回来的情况。
逻辑回归分析（于2015 - 2016年进行）评估了在2001 - 2年和2004 - 5年接受两次调查的美国成年人代表性样本中，过去一年有风险饮酒行为的转变情况。
在34,653名成年人中，28%在第一次调查时报告有风险饮酒行为。其中，73%在第二次调查时仍有风险饮酒行为。在第一次调查时没有风险饮酒行为的人中，15%在第二次调查时报告有风险饮酒行为。高风险饮酒行为正向转变的预测因素在第一次调查时包括：年轻、男性、白人、无子女、健康状况良好至极佳、曾经吸烟、使用毒品、是军人（仅限于第一次调查时，第二次调查时不是）以及到第二次调查时离婚或分居。低风险饮酒行为正向转变的预测因素包括：老年人（年龄≥65岁）、女性、非白人、从不吸烟或使用毒品、没有酒精使用障碍、接受过酒精治疗，以及在第一次调查后有子女。
许多成年人会经历有风险饮酒行为的转变；年轻人是转变为有风险饮酒行为以及未转变为低风险饮酒行为的最强正向预测因素。刚达到法定饮酒年龄的人最有可能转变为高风险饮酒，而最不可能转变为低风险饮酒。
