Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK.
MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, ISPA - Instituto Universitário, Lisbon, Portugal.
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Feb;25(2):522-535. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14520. Epub 2018 Dec 19.
Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900-2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%-93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%-43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%-64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.
很少有研究关注野生动物种群对气候变化的适应能力。我们以一种高等脊椎动物——绿海龟为例，因为其生命史受到气候条件的根本影响，包括温度依赖性性别决定和对受海平面上升影响的海滩的强制性利用。我们利用来自西非一个具有全球重要意义的种群的实证数据，在一个定量框架内评估其对气候变化的抵抗力。我们预测了 200 年的主要性别比例（1900-2100 年），并创建了一个海滩的数字高程模型，以估计预计海平面上升的影响。主要性别比例目前几乎平衡，出生的幼龟中有 52%为雌性。在 IPCC 模型下，我们预测：(a)到 2100 年，雌性的比例将增加到 76%-93%，但较冷的温度，无论是在筑巢季节结束时还是在阴凉处，都将保证雄性幼龟的产生；(b)IPCC 海平面上升情景将导致当前筑巢面积减少 33.4%-43.0%；(c)气候变化将通过种群女性化促进种群增长，到 2120 年，预计将有 32%-64%的筑巢雌龟增加；(d)然而，由于孵化温度接近致死水平，该种群将停止增长并开始下降。与其他因素（觅食灵活性程度、繁殖地大小和轨迹以及普遍存在的威胁）一起，这个筑巢种群应该能够抵抗到 2100 年的气候变化，并且时空微生境的可用性表明，通过选择筑巢地点或改变筑巢物候学，有可能对预测的影响产生恢复力。这是迄今为止使用最新的 IPCC 模型对海洋爬行动物的气候变化适应能力进行的最全面评估，评估了温度和海平面上升的影响，同时还结合了其他生态和人口参数。我们建议将此作为其他种群、物种和分类群的框架。
