CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, City University of New York, New York, New York, United States of America.
Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, City University of New York, New York, New York, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2018 Dec 26;13(12):e0208487. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208487. eCollection 2018.
Most of future population growth will take place in the world's cities and towns. Yet, there is no well-established, consistent way to measure either urban land or people. Even census-based urban concepts and measures undergo frequent revision, impeding rigorous comparisons over time and place. This study presents a new spatial approach to derive consistent urban proxies for the US. It compares census-designated urban blocks with proxies for land-based classifications of built-up areas derived from time-series of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) for 1990-2010. This comparison provides a new way to understand urban structure and its changes: Most land that is more than 50% built-up, and people living on such land, are officially classified as urban. However, 30% of the census-designated urban population and land is located in less built-up areas that can be characterized as mainly suburban and peri-urban in nature. Such insights are important starting points for a new urban research program: creating globally and temporally consistent proxies to guide modelling of urban change.
未来的人口增长大部分将发生在世界各大城市和城镇。然而，目前还没有一种既定的、一致的方法来衡量城市土地或人口。即使是基于人口普查的城市概念和衡量标准也在频繁修订，阻碍了不同时间和地点之间的严格比较。本研究提出了一种新的空间方法，为美国提供一致的城市代理指标。它将人口普查指定的城市街区与从 1990-2010 年全球人类住区层（GHSL）时间序列中得出的基于土地的建成区分类的代理进行了比较。这种比较提供了一种理解城市结构及其变化的新方法：大部分超过 50%建成的土地和居住在这些土地上的人被正式划分为城市。然而，30%的人口普查指定的城市人口和土地位于建成区较少的地区，这些地区的性质主要是郊区和城市周边地区。这些观点是新的城市研究计划的重要起点：创建全球和时间一致的代理指标，以指导城市变化的建模。
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