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自适应信号控制技术的碰撞严重程度影响:来自宾夕法尼亚州和弗吉尼亚州的实证评估和见解

Crash severity effects of adaptive signal control technology: An empirical assessment with insights from Pennsylvania and Virginia.

机构信息

Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, United States.

Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville, VA 22903, United States.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Mar;124:151-162. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.01.008. Epub 2019 Jan 11.

Abstract

Adaptive signal control technology (ASCT) is an intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technology that optimizes signal timings in real time to improve corridor flow. While a few past studies have examined the impact of ASCT on crash frequency, little is known about its effect on injury severity outcomes. Similarly, the impact of different types of ASCTs deployed across different states is also uncertain. This paper therefore, used ordered probit models with random parameters to estimate the injury severity outcomes resulting from ASCT deployment across Pennsylvania and Virginia. Two disparate systems deployed across the two different states were analyzed to assess whether they had similar impacts on injury severity, although signal timings are optimized using different algorithms by both systems. The estimation results revealed that both ASCT systems were associated with reductions in injury severity levels. Marginal effects showed that Type A ASCT systems reduced the propensity of severe plus moderate and minor injury crashes by 11.70% and 10.36% while type B ASCT reduced the propensity of severe plus moderate and minor injury crashes by 4.39% and 6.92%. Similarly, the ASCTs deployed across the two states were also observed to reduce injury severities. The combined best fit model also revealed a similar trend towards reductions in severe plus moderate and minor injury crashes by 5.24% and 9.91%. This model performed well on validation data with a low forecast error of 0.301 and was also observed to be spatially transferable. These results encourage the consideration of ASCT deployments at intersections with high crash severities and have practical implications for aiding agencies in making future deployment decisions about ASCT.

摘要

自适应信号控制技术(ASCT)是一种智能交通系统(ITS)技术,它可以实时优化信号时序,以改善走廊流量。虽然过去有一些研究考察了 ASCT 对事故频率的影响,但对于其对伤害严重程度结果的影响知之甚少。同样,部署在不同州的不同类型的 ASCT 的影响也不确定。因此,本文使用带有随机参数的有序概率模型来估计宾夕法尼亚州和弗吉尼亚州部署 ASCT 后的伤害严重程度结果。分析了两个不同州部署的两个不同系统,以评估它们对伤害严重程度是否有相似的影响,尽管两个系统使用不同的算法来优化信号时序。估计结果表明,这两种 ASCT 系统都与伤害严重程度的降低有关。边际效应表明,A 型 ASCT 系统将严重加中度和轻度伤害事故的发生概率降低了 11.70%和 10.36%,而 B 型 ASCT 系统则将严重加中度和轻度伤害事故的发生概率降低了 4.39%和 6.92%。同样,在两个州部署的 ASCT 也被观察到降低了伤害严重程度。综合最佳拟合模型还显示出严重加中度和轻度伤害事故的发生概率降低了 5.24%和 9.91%的类似趋势。该模型在验证数据上表现良好,预测误差低至 0.301,并且还观察到具有空间可转移性。这些结果鼓励在高事故严重程度的交叉口考虑部署 ASCT,并对援助机构在未来关于 ASCT 的部署决策中具有实际意义。

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