Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, Washington.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2020 Sep;103(3):1295-1300. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-1004.
We examined whether baseline mortality risk, as a function of child age and site, modified the azithromycin mortality-reduction effect in the (MORDOR) clinical trial. We used the Cox proportional hazards model with an interaction term. Three models were examined representing three sources for the baseline-risk covariate: two using sources external to MORDOR and the third leveraging data within MORDOR. All three models provided moderate evidence for the effect becoming stronger with increasing baseline mortality ( = 0.02, 0.02, and 0.07, respectively) at the rate of approximately 6-12% additional mortality reduction per doubling of baseline mortality. Etiological and programmatic implications of these findings are discussed.
我们研究了基线死亡率风险（随儿童年龄和地点的变化而变化）是否会改变 MORDOR 临床试验中阿奇霉素对死亡率的降低效果。我们使用了 Cox 比例风险模型和交互项。我们检验了三个模型，它们分别代表了基线风险协变量的三个来源：两个使用了 MORDOR 之外的来源，第三个则利用了 MORDOR 内部的数据。这三个模型都提供了适度的证据表明，随着基线死亡率的增加，效果会变得更强（分别为 = 0.02、0.02 和 0.07），基线死亡率每增加一倍，额外的死亡率降低约为 6-12%。我们讨论了这些发现对病因学和规划的影响。
