Azevedo Franciane, Amaku Marcos, Coutinho Francisco Antonio Bezerra, Lopez Luis Fernandez, Massad Eduardo
Faculdade de Engenharia da Computação e Engenharia Elétrica, Universidade Federal do Sul e Sudeste do Pará, Marabá, PA, Brazil.
Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo e LIM01-HCFMUSP, Av. Dr. Arnaldo 455, São Paulo, SP, 01246-903, Brazil.
Infect Dis Model. 2018 Nov 20;3:345-361. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.11.002. eCollection 2018.
We consider nested or multiscale models to study the effect of the temporal evolution of the disease within the host in the population dynamics of the disease, for one and two infectious agents. We assumed a coupling between the within-host infection rate and the between-host transmission rate. The age of infection within each individual in a population affects the probability of transmission of the disease to a susceptible host and this will affect the temporal evolution of the disease in the host population. To analyze the infection within the host, we consider bacterial-like and viral-like infections. In the model for two infectious agents, we found that, when strain 2 has a basic reproduction number greater than the basic reproduction number of strain 1, strain 2 replaces strain 1 in the population. However, if but the values are closer, the replacement does not occur immediately and both strains can coexist for a long time. We applied the model to a scenario in which patients infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) are cleared of HCV when super-infected with the hepatitis A virus (HAV). We compared the time for the replacement of HCV by HAV in the population considering instantaneous and non-instantaneous replacement within the individuals. The model developed can be generalized for more than two infectious agents.
我们考虑使用嵌套或多尺度模型，以研究在疾病的种群动态中，宿主内疾病的时间演变对一种和两种感染因子的影响。我们假设宿主内感染率与宿主间传播率之间存在耦合关系。种群中每个个体的感染年龄会影响疾病传播给易感宿主的概率，这将影响宿主种群中疾病的时间演变。为了分析宿主内的感染情况，我们考虑了类似细菌和类似病毒的感染。在两种感染因子的模型中，我们发现，当菌株2的基本繁殖数大于菌株1的基本繁殖数时，菌株2会在种群中取代菌株1。然而，如果 但数值更接近，取代不会立即发生，两种菌株可以长期共存。我们将该模型应用于一种情况，即感染丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）的患者在被甲型肝炎病毒（HAV）超感染时会清除HCV。我们比较了在考虑个体内瞬时和非瞬时取代的情况下，HAV在种群中取代HCV的时间。所开发的模型可以推广到两种以上的感染因子。
