Botha D, Lynnerup N, Steyn M
Human Variation and Identification Research Unit, School of Anatomical Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Department of Forensic Pathology, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Forensic Sci Int. 2019 Apr;297:307-314. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2019.02.020. Epub 2019 Feb 22.
The use of bone mineral density (BMD) to predict age-at-death in skeletal remains provides a usable alternative to other methods because the values obtained are not observer-dependent. The aim of this study was to investigate the usability of BMD to estimate age in South African populations, and to assess inter-population variation and sex-specific differences in BMD values from the proximal end of the femur. In order to estimate age, regression analysis was done for the construction of population dependent formulae. The sample comprised of a total of 123 femora of black and white South Africans. DXA scans were performed using the Hologic Discovery system. Data analysis was done by employing independent-samples t-tests and correlation/regression analyses. The results indicated a statistically significant difference between black and white South Africans. Male groups were also significantly different from one another, but black and white females showed no significant differences. Linear regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between BMD values and age for the white population and the combined sample, but not for the black population. Bootstrapping were employed to confirm validity of the results. In conclusion, this study showed that the use of DXA measurements of the femur for estimating age may be used for the estimation of age-at-death in white South Africans, but more research is needed to better understand the relationship between bone mineral density and age in black South Africans.
利用骨密度（BMD）来预测骨骼遗骸的死亡年龄，相对于其他方法而言，提供了一种可行的替代方案，因为所获得的值不依赖于观察者。本研究的目的是调查骨密度在南非人群中用于估计年龄的可行性，并评估来自股骨近端的骨密度值在不同人群间的差异以及性别差异。为了估计年龄，进行了回归分析以构建依赖于人群的公式。样本总共包括123例南非黑人和白人的股骨。使用Hologic Discovery系统进行双能X线吸收测定扫描。通过独立样本t检验以及相关性/回归分析进行数据分析。结果表明南非黑人和白人之间存在统计学上的显著差异。男性组之间也存在显著差异，但黑人女性和白人女性之间没有显著差异。线性回归分析显示，对于白人人群和合并样本，骨密度值与年龄之间存在显著相关性，但对于黑人人群则不然。采用自助法来确认结果的有效性。总之，本研究表明，利用股骨的双能X线吸收测定测量来估计年龄，可用于估计南非白人的死亡年龄，但需要更多研究来更好地理解南非黑人骨密度与年龄之间的关系。
