Indian Institute of Public Health, Bhubaneswar, Public Health Foundation of India, Bhubaneswar, India.
School of Public Health, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar, India.
Int J Environ Health Res. 2020 Apr;30(2):187-197. doi: 10.1080/09603123.2019.1587389. Epub 2019 Mar 11.
Despite experiencing hot weathers, limited studies from India explored relationships between ambient heat and health. We studied associations between heat and all-cause mortality to estimate heat threshold(s) affecting health, and examine other affecting dimensions. We conducted time-series analysis with daily maximum temperature and all-cause mortality data of Bhubaneswar city (March-July, 2007-2017), and explored their interactions. Mortality risks rose when daily maximum temperatures were >36.2°C (lower threshold), and even more when >40.5°C (upper threshold). Every degree above36.2°C increased the mortality risk by 2% (mortality rate ratio: 1.02; 95% CI 1.01, 1.03). The effects of maximum temperature increased on days when minimum temperatures were >25.6°C (median). The effect of heat was immediate and lasted for 0-1 day with no lagged effect. Two temperature thresholds with varying mortality risks provided an opportunity for a graded heat warning system. The accentuation of the deleterious effects of heat by the higher minimum temperature calls for its inclusion in the heat warning system in future.
尽管印度经历了炎热的天气，但很少有研究探讨环境热与健康之间的关系。我们研究了热与全因死亡率之间的关联，以估计影响健康的热阈值，并研究其他影响因素。我们对布巴内斯瓦尔市（2007 年 3 月至 7 月）的每日最高温度和全因死亡率数据进行了时间序列分析，并探讨了它们之间的相互作用。当每日最高温度>36.2°C（下限）时，死亡率风险上升，而当>40.5°C（上限）时，死亡率风险上升得更多。每日最高温度每升高 1°C，死亡率风险增加 2%（死亡率比：1.02；95%置信区间 1.01，1.03）。当最低温度>25.6°C（中位数）时，最高温度的影响会增加。热效应是即时的，持续 0-1 天，没有滞后效应。两个具有不同死亡率风险的温度阈值为分级热警报系统提供了机会。未来的热警报系统应包括更高的最低温度对热的有害影响的加剧。
