Department of Health Sciences, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37604, USA.
MPH Program, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2018 Dec;8(1-2):1-7. doi: 10.2991/j.jegh.2017.11.004.
This study examined correlations of historical changes in diet and physical inactivity with the rise of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Kenya. Historical data on diet, wage jobs by industry, urbanization, gross domestic product (GDP), and morbidity due to NCDs were extracted from Kenya Statistical Abstracts, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT), and the World Bank online database. These data were plotted and correlations between these factors and the incidence of different NCDs over time were evaluated. There was a rapid rise in the incidence of circulatory disease starting in 2001, and of hypertension and diabetes starting in 2008. The rise of these NCDs, especially hypertension and diabetes, was accompanied over the same period by a rise in per capita GDP and physical inactivity (as measured by increased urbanization and declining proportion of agricultural and forestry wage jobs); a rise in per capita supply of rice, wheat and its products, and cooking oils; and a decline in the per capita supply of maize and sugar. In conclusion, the positive correlations between indicators of dietary consumption and physical inactivity and rates of hypertension, circulatory disease, and diabetes suggest that the rapid rise of NCDs in Kenya may be, in part, due to changes in these modifiable factors.
本研究考察了肯尼亚饮食和身体活动变化的历史与非传染性疾病（NCDs）上升之间的相关性。从肯尼亚统计摘要、粮农组织（FAOSTAT）和世界银行在线数据库中提取了有关饮食、按行业划分的工资工作、城市化、国内生产总值（GDP）以及 NCD 发病率的历史数据。绘制了这些数据，并评估了这些因素与不同 NCD 发病率随时间的变化之间的相关性。从 2001 年开始，心血管疾病的发病率迅速上升，从 2008 年开始，高血压和糖尿病的发病率也开始上升。在此期间，这些 NCD 的发病率上升，尤其是高血压和糖尿病，伴随着人均 GDP 和身体活动的上升（以城市化程度的提高和农业和林业工资工作比例的下降来衡量）；人均大米、小麦及其产品和食用油供应的增加；以及人均玉米和糖供应的减少。总之，饮食消费和身体活动指标与高血压、心血管疾病和糖尿病发病率之间的正相关关系表明，肯尼亚 NCD 的快速上升可能部分归因于这些可改变因素的变化。
