Petricca Patrizio, Babeyko Andrey Y
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università Sapienza, Rome, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2019 Mar 13;9(1):4326. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-40740-1.
We compiled a database and systematically evaluated tsunamigenic potential of all up-to-date known crustal fault systems and subduction zones in the entire Mediterranean region that has experienced several catastrophic tsunamis in historical times. The task is accomplished by means of numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation. We have systematically simulated all representative ruptures populating known crustal faults and subduction interfaces with magnitudes ranging from 6.1 up to expected Mw. Maximum tsunami heights calculated everywhere along the coasts allowed us to classify the sources in terms of their tsunamigenic potential and to estimate their minimum tsunamigenic magnitude. Almost every source in the Mediterranean, starting from Mw = 6.5, is capable to produce local tsunami at the advisory level (wave height >20 cm and ≤50 cm). In respect to the watch level (wave height >50 cm) larger magnitudes are needed (M ≥ 6.9). Faults behave more heterogeneously in the context of far field early warning. De-aggregation of the database at any selected coastal location can reveal relevant sources of tsunami hazard for this location. Our compilation blueprints methodology that, if completed with source recurrence rates and site-specific amplification factors, can be considered as a backbone for development of optimal early warning strategies by Mediterranean tsunami warning providers.
我们编制了一个数据库，并系统地评估了整个地中海地区所有最新已知的地壳断层系统和俯冲带的海啸生成潜力，该地区在历史上曾经历过几次灾难性海啸。这项任务是通过海啸生成和传播的数值模拟来完成的。我们系统地模拟了所有代表已知地壳断层和俯冲界面的破裂情况，震级范围从6.1到预期的Mw。沿海岸各处计算出的最大海啸高度使我们能够根据其海啸生成潜力对这些源进行分类，并估计其最小海啸生成震级。地中海地区几乎每个震级从Mw = 6.5开始的源，都能够产生警报级别的局部海啸（波高>20厘米且≤50厘米）。对于警戒级（波高>50厘米），则需要更大的震级（M≥6.9）。在远场早期预警的背景下，断层的表现更加不均匀。在任何选定的沿海地点对数据库进行分解，可以揭示该地点相关的海啸危险源。我们编制的蓝图方法，如果结合源复发率和特定地点的放大因子，可被视为地中海海啸预警机构制定最佳早期预警策略的基础。
