William F. Connell School of Nursing, Boston College,140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467,USA.
Department of Epidemiology,Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115,USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e122. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818003497.
UNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The epidemiologic impact of achieving these goals is unknown. The HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model, a calibrated agent-based model of HIV transmission, is used to examine scenarios of incremental improvements to the testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) continuum in South Africa in 2015. The speed of intervention availability is explored, comparing policies for their predicted effects on incidence, prevalence and achievement of fast-track targets in 2020 and 2030. Moderate (30%) improvements in the continuum will not achieve 2020 or 2030 targets and have modest impacts on incidence and prevalence. Improving the continuum by 80% and increasing availability reduces incidence from 2.54 to 0.80 per 100 person-years (-1.73, interquartile range (IQR): -1.42, -2.13) and prevalence from 26.0 to 24.6% (-1.4 percentage points, IQR: -0.88, -1.92) from 2015 to 2030 and achieves fast track targets in 2020 and 2030. Achieving 90-90-90 in South Africa is possible with large improvements to the testing and treatment continuum. The epidemiologic impact of these improvements depends on the balance between survival and transmission benefits of ART with the potential for incidence to remain high.
联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)分别设定了到 2020 年和 2030 年,艾滋病毒(HIV)阳性个体中病毒抑制率达到 73%和 86%的快速通道目标。但目前尚不清楚实现这些目标的流行病学影响。本研究使用经过校准的基于代理的 HIV 传播动力学模型(HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model),以检验 2015 年南非在检测和抗逆转录病毒治疗(ART)连续体方面逐步改进的方案。研究探索了干预措施的速度,比较了各种政策对 2020 年和 2030 年发病率、流行率和快速通道目标实现情况的预测效果。连续体的适度(30%)改善将无法实现 2020 年或 2030 年的目标,对发病率和流行率的影响也较为有限。将连续体提高 80%并增加其可及性,可使发病率从 2015 年的每 100 人年 2.54 降至 0.80(减少 1.73,四分位距(IQR):-1.42,-2.13),流行率从 26.0%降至 24.6%(减少 1.4 个百分点,IQR:-0.88,-1.92),并在 2020 年和 2030 年实现快速通道目标。南非通过对检测和治疗连续体进行大幅改进,实现 90-90-90 目标是有可能的。这些改进的流行病学影响取决于抗逆转录病毒治疗在生存和传播方面的获益平衡,而发病率仍有可能居高不下。
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