State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China.
China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment,Beijing,China.
Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e110. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818003412.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is the largest urban agglomeration in northern China, but the spatiotemporal patterns and risk factors concerning hepatitis B virus (HBV) incidence in this area have been unclear. The present study aimed to reveal the spatiotemporal epidemiological features of HBV infection and quantify the association between HBV infection and socio-economic risk factors. The data on HBV cases in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2007 to 2012 was collected for each county. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model and the GeoDetector method were used to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and detect risk factors. High-risk regions were mainly distributed in the underdeveloped rural areas in the north and mid-south of the study region, while low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the urban and western areas. The HBV annual incidence rate decreased substantially over the 6-year period, dropping from 7.34/105 to 5.51/105. Compared with this overall trend, 38.5% of high-risk counties showed a faster decrease, and 35.9% of high-risk counties exhibited a slower decrease. Meanwhile, 29.7% of low-risk counties had a faster decrease, and 44.6% of low-risk counties exhibited a slower decrease. Socio-economic factors were strongly associated with the spatiotemporal patterns and variation. The population density and gross domestic product per capita were negatively associated with HBV transmission, with determinant powers of 0.17 and 0.12, respectively. The proportion of primary industry and the number of healthcare workers were positively associated with the disease incidence, with determinant powers of 0.11 and 0.8, respectively. The interactive effect between population density and the other factors exerted a greater influence on HBV transmission than that of these factors measured independently.
京津冀地区是中国北方最大的城市群，但该地区乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）发病率的时空格局和危险因素尚不清楚。本研究旨在揭示 HBV 感染的时空流行病学特征，并定量评估 HBV 感染与社会经济危险因素之间的关系。收集了京津冀地区 2007 年至 2012 年各县的 HBV 病例数据。采用贝叶斯时空分层模型和地理探测器方法来揭示时空模式并检测危险因素。高风险地区主要分布在研究区北部和中南部欠发达的农村地区，而低风险地区主要分布在城市和西部地区。HBV 年发病率在 6 年内大幅下降，从 7.34/105 降至 5.51/105。与这一总体趋势相比，38.5%的高风险县下降速度更快，35.9%的高风险县下降速度更慢。与此同时，29.7%的低风险县下降速度更快，44.6%的低风险县下降速度更慢。社会经济因素与时空格局和变化密切相关。人口密度和人均国内生产总值与 HBV 传播呈负相关，决定系数分别为 0.17 和 0.12。第一产业比例和卫生工作者人数与疾病发病率呈正相关，决定系数分别为 0.11 和 0.8。人口密度与其他因素的交互作用对 HBV 传播的影响大于这些因素单独测量的影响。
