European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, UK.
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, UK; Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Environ Int. 2019 Jun;127:21-34. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.008. Epub 2019 Mar 18.
Heat stress and forest fires are often considered highly correlated hazards as extreme temperatures play a key role in both occurrences. This commonality can influence how civil protection and local responders deploy resources on the ground and could lead to an underestimation of potential impacts, as people could be less resilient when exposed to multiple hazards. In this work, we provide a simple methodology to identify areas prone to concurrent hazards, exemplified with, but not limited to, heat stress and fire danger. We use the combined heat and forest fire event that affected Europe in June 2017 to demonstrate that the methodology can be used for analysing past events as well as making predictions, by using reanalysis and medium-range weather forecasts, respectively. We present new spatial layers that map the combined danger and make suggestions on how these could be used in the context of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. These products could be particularly valuable in disaster risk reduction and emergency response management, particularly for civil protection, humanitarian agencies and other first responders whose role is to identify priorities during pre-interventions and emergencies.
热应激和森林火灾通常被认为是高度相关的灾害,因为极端温度在这两种情况的发生中都起着关键作用。这种共性会影响民间保护和当地响应者在地面上部署资源的方式,并且可能导致对潜在影响的低估,因为人们在同时面临多种灾害时可能更缺乏弹性。在这项工作中,我们提供了一种简单的方法来识别容易同时发生灾害的区域,以热应激和火灾危险为例,但不限于这两种情况。我们使用 2017 年 6 月影响欧洲的联合热和森林火灾事件来证明该方法可用于分析过去的事件以及分别使用再分析和中程天气预报进行预测。我们提出了新的空间层来绘制联合危险图,并就如何在多灾害早期预警系统的背景下使用这些图提出了建议。这些产品在减少灾害风险和应急管理方面特别有价值,特别是对于民间保护、人道主义机构和其他第一响应者而言,他们的作用是在干预前和紧急情况下确定优先事项。