Holmberg L, Adami H O, Persson I, Lundström T, Tabar L
Br Med J (Clin Res Ed). 1986 Sep 27;293(6550):779-82. doi: 10.1136/bmj.293.6550.779.
The changes in the demand for surgical inpatient care created by mammographic screening for breast cancer were analysed by comparing two counties, one with and one without a mass screening campaign. A comprehensive computerised register of inpatient care in the region was used. The results indicate that population based screening offered to women above 40 years and repeated every two to three years will increase the number of operations required for breast cancer and inpatient days by at least 150% during the initial screening round. During the second round the figures tend to return to previous levels. Of decisive importance for the demands on health service resources are the specificity of screening, the duration of the first screening round, and the age groups included.
通过比较两个县（一个开展了大规模筛查活动，另一个没有），分析了乳腺癌钼靶筛查对外科住院护理需求的影响。使用了该地区全面的住院护理计算机登记系统。结果表明，为40岁以上女性提供的基于人群的筛查，每两到三年重复一次，在首轮筛查期间将使乳腺癌所需手术数量和住院天数至少增加150%。在第二轮筛查期间，这些数字往往会回到之前的水平。筛查的特异性、首轮筛查的持续时间以及所涵盖的年龄组，对卫生服务资源需求具有决定性意义。
