Jejeebhoy S J
Stud Fam Plann. 1978 Aug;9(8):206-11.
Three factors are usually proposed as inducing the transition from natural to regulated fertility. Fertility regulation may occur when the demand for children is reduced; when general attitudes toward fertility regulaton become positive; and, finally, when such factors as infant and child survival prospects and natural fertility conditions improve. Applying the Easterlin framework for fertility determination, this paper considers the effect of these factors in the shift from natural to regulated fertility in Taiwan in 1965. Cross-sectional data for continuously married women aged 35-44 are used. The results indicate that, at the initial stages of the fertility transition, it is primarily an increase in the potential output of surviving children and a decline in the subjective costs associated with fertility regulation, rahter than a decline in desired fertility, that distinguish the natural fertility subpopulation from the regulating subpopulation.
通常认为有三个因素促使生育率从自然生育向计划生育转变。当对孩子的需求减少时；当对生育调节的总体态度变得积极时；最后，当婴儿和儿童的生存前景以及自然生育条件等因素得到改善时，生育调节可能会发生。运用伊斯特林生育决定框架，本文考察了这些因素对1965年台湾生育率从自然生育向计划生育转变的影响。使用了35 - 44岁持续婚姻状态女性的横截面数据。结果表明，在生育率转变的初始阶段，区分自然生育亚群体和计划生育亚群体的主要是存活子女潜在产出的增加以及与生育调节相关的主观成本的下降，而不是期望生育率的下降。
