The transition from natural to controlled fertility in Taiwan: a cross-sectional analysis of demand and supply factors.

Three factors are usually proposed as inducing the transition from natural to regulated fertility. Fertility regulation may occur when the demand for children is reduced; when general attitudes toward fertility regulaton become positive; and, finally, when such factors as infant and child survival prospects and natural fertility conditions improve. Applying the Easterlin framework for fertility determination, this paper considers the effect of these factors in the shift from natural to regulated fertility in Taiwan in 1965. Cross-sectional data for continuously married women aged 35-44 are used. The results indicate that, at the initial stages of the fertility transition, it is primarily an increase in the potential output of surviving children and a decline in the subjective costs associated with fertility regulation, rahter than a decline in desired fertility, that distinguish the natural fertility subpopulation from the regulating subpopulation.