Zhang Jinjia, Xu Kaili, You Greg, Wang Beibei, Zhao Lei
Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education on Safe Mining of Deep Metal Mines, Northeastern University, Shenyang, China.
School of Science, Engineering and Information Technology, Federation University Australia, Ballarat, Australia.
Risk Anal. 2019 Jul;39(7):1634-1646. doi: 10.1111/risa.13311. Epub 2019 Apr 10.
The coal mine production industry is a complex sociotechnical system with interactive relationships among several risk factors. Currently, causation analysis of gas explosion accidents is mainly focused on the aspects of human error and equipment fault, while neglecting the interactive relationships among risk factors. A new method is proposed through risk coupling. First, the meaning of risk coupling of a gas explosion is defined, and types of risk coupling are classified. Next, the coupled relationship and coupled effects among risk factors are explored through combining the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and the NK model. Twenty-eight representative risk factors and 16 coupled types of risk factors are obtained through analysis of 332 gas explosion accidents in coal mines in China. Through the application of the combined ISM-NK model, an eight-level hierarchical model of risk coupling of a gas explosion accident is established, and the coupled degrees of different types of risk coupling are assessed. The hierarchical model reveals that two of the 28 risk factors, such as state policies, laws, and regulations, are the root risk factors for gas explosions; nine of the 28 risk factors, such as flame from blasting, electric spark, and local gas accumulation, are direct causes of gas explosions; whereas 17 of the risk factors, such as three-violation actions, ventilation system, and safety management, are indirect ones. A quantitative analysis of the NK model shows that the probability of gas explosion increases with the increasing number of risk factors. Compared with subjective risk factors, objective risk factors have a higher probability of causing gas explosion because of risk coupling.
煤矿生产行业是一个复杂的社会技术系统，其中多个风险因素之间存在着相互作用的关系。目前，瓦斯爆炸事故的因果分析主要集中在人为失误和设备故障方面，而忽视了风险因素之间的相互作用关系。通过风险耦合提出了一种新方法。首先，定义了瓦斯爆炸风险耦合的含义，并对风险耦合类型进行了分类。其次，通过结合解释结构模型（ISM）和NK模型，探索了风险因素之间的耦合关系和耦合效应。通过对我国332起煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的分析，得到了28个代表性风险因素和16种风险因素耦合类型。通过应用ISM-NK组合模型，建立了瓦斯爆炸事故风险耦合的八级层次模型，并对不同类型风险耦合的耦合度进行了评估。层次模型表明，28个风险因素中的两个，如国家政策、法律法规，是瓦斯爆炸的根源性风险因素；28个风险因素中的9个，如爆破火焰、电火花和局部瓦斯积聚，是瓦斯爆炸的直接原因；而17个风险因素，如“三违”行为、通风系统和安全管理，是间接原因。NK模型的定量分析表明，瓦斯爆炸的概率随着风险因素数量的增加而增加。与主观风险因素相比，客观风险因素由于风险耦合导致瓦斯爆炸的概率更高。
