Loichinger Elke, Hammer Bernhard, Prskawetz Alexia, Freiberger Michael, Sambt Joze
1College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
3Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, (IIASA, VID/OeAW, WU), Vienna, Austria.
Eur J Popul. 2017 Jan 27;33(3):351-380. doi: 10.1007/s10680-016-9405-1. eCollection 2017 Jul.
In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.
在本文中，我们比较了部分欧洲国家的几种经济抚养比类型。这些抚养比不仅考虑了人口的年龄结构，还考虑了特定年龄经济行为的差异，如劳动力市场活动、收入和消费以及特定年龄的公共转移支付。在我们将特定年龄经济行为和转移支付模式与人口预测相结合的选定模拟中，我们表明，如果当前特定年龄模式不变，在所有国家人口老龄化都将导致抚养比显著上升。我们对经济抚养比跨国差异的分析表明，这些差异是由特定年龄经济行为差异和人口年龄构成差异共同驱动的。在特定政策背景下选择使用哪种抚养比，取决于要回答的问题的性质。我们对各国不同抚养比的比较，有助于深入了解哪些策略可能有效地缓解因人口结构变化而导致的预期经济抚养比上升。
