Lu Xingcheng, Chen Yiang, Huang Yeqi, Lin Changqing, Li Zhiyuan, Fung Jimmy C H, Lau Alexis K H
Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, China.
Institute for the Environment, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jul 10;673:708-718. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.452. Epub 2019 Apr 4.
During China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) and 12th FYP (2006-2015), a series of air pollution control measures was implemented in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Therefore, it is vital to determine how the concentration and sources of fine particulate matter (PM) in this region changed between 2006 and 2015. In this work, using 2006 and 2015 emission inventories, the concentration and source apportionment of PM were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast - Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (WRF-CAMx) for January, April, July and October in the PRD region. The PM in 10 cities and the contributions made by sources in six major categories were tracked using the Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) module. The results showed that the PM concentration was lower across the entire PRD region in the 2015 emission scenario than in the 2006 scenario, and that the degree of this reduction exceeded 40 μg/m in some places. The PM contributed by mobile emissions decreased the most, especially in Guangzhou, Foshan and Shenzhen, where mobile contributions decreased from 15.0, 17.9 and 13.0 μg/m in 2006 to 2.6, 3.1 and 4.1 μg/m in 2015, respectively. The PM contributed by power plants also decreased, and in Dongguan and Guangzhou, the extent of this reduction reached 2.5 and 3.4 μg/m respectively. However, due to an increase in industrial production and population size, the PM from industrial point sources and area sources also increased between 2006 and 2015 in some of the cities. Investigation of the source apportionment for city centers yielded similar results. In addition to emissions within the PRD region, outside-PRD non-local contribution is still an important PM contributor. Hence, more stringent policies for controlling industrial and area sources and deepening province-to-province cooperation are urgently needed as the next step in PM control.
在中国第十一个五年计划（FYP）和第十二个五年计划（2006 - 2015年）期间，珠江三角洲（PRD）地区实施了一系列空气污染控制措施。因此，确定该地区2006年至2015年期间细颗粒物（PM）的浓度和来源如何变化至关重要。在这项工作中，利用2006年和2015年的排放清单，使用天气研究和预报 - 扩展综合空气质量模型（WRF - CAMx）对珠江三角洲地区1月、4月、7月和10月的PM浓度和来源进行了模拟。使用颗粒物源解析技术（PSAT）模块追踪了10个城市的PM以及六大类来源的贡献。结果表明，2015年排放情景下整个珠江三角洲地区的PM浓度低于2006年情景，在某些地方这种降低程度超过40μg/m。移动源排放贡献的PM下降最多，特别是在广州、佛山和深圳，移动源贡献分别从2006年的15.0、17.9和13.0μg/m降至2015年的2.6、3.1和4.1μg/m。发电厂贡献的PM也有所下降，在东莞和广州，这种下降幅度分别达到2.5和3.4μg/m。然而，由于工业生产和人口规模的增加，2006年至2015年期间一些城市的工业点源和面源排放的PM也有所增加。对市中心源解析的调查得出了类似的结果。除了珠江三角洲地区内的排放外，珠江三角洲以外的非本地贡献仍然是PM的重要贡献者。因此，作为下一步PM控制措施，迫切需要更严格的工业和面源控制政策以及深化省际合作。
