School of Computer Science and Technology, Xidian University, Xi'an 710071, China.
School of Telecommunications Engineering, Xidian University, Xi'an 710071, China; School of Science, Northwestern A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jul 15;674:392-400. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.143. Epub 2019 Apr 13.
Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. Using Sitobion avenae and climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I-III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.
气候变化影响着所有生物。麦蚜会降低小麦的营养价值，并影响气候变化下的小麦产量。在这项研究中，我们试图通过模拟气候与麦蚜丰度之间的关系来解释气候变化如何影响麦蚜的生态机制，这不仅有助于提高麦蚜的预测和防治效果，还有助于缓解粮食危机。模糊认知图（FCM）是描绘复杂系统的有效工具。利用在中国收集的燕麦麦蚜和气候数据，我们利用差分进化（DE）算法构建了 FCM 模型，直接说明了气候对麦蚜丰度的影响。建立了气候与麦蚜不同生长阶段（I-III 龄幼虫、有翅 4 龄幼虫、无翅 4 龄幼虫、有翅成虫、无翅成虫）之间的关系。FCM 模型的分析结果表明，温度对麦蚜的影响最大。此外，这些模型可以用于定量确定每个气候因素和麦蚜丰度的数值。进一步构建了气候与麦蚜之间的两个总体关系模型，实验结果表明，天敌和最高日温对麦蚜的影响最大。天敌和最高日温分别对麦蚜产生负向和正向影响。还显示了所有生长阶段的麦蚜之间的一些相互关系以及气候因素之间的内部关系。
