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对气候模式模拟的北半球中纬度风暴路径年际变率的考察——对模式分辨率和耦合的敏感性

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude storm track interannual variability simulated by climate models-sensitivity to model resolution and coupling.

作者信息

Feng Xuelei, Huang Bohua, Tintera George, Chen Baohua

机构信息

1Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Pusan, 46241 South Korea.

2Pusan National University, Pusan, 46241 South Korea.

出版信息

Clim Dyn. 2019;52(7):4247-4268. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4378-x. Epub 2018 Aug 4.

DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4378-x
PMID:31007411
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6445401/
Abstract

The model fidelity in simulating the Northern Hemisphere storm track interannual variability and the connections of this variability to the low frequency atmospheric variations and oceanic variations are examined based on the atmospheric European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) systems at different horizontal resolutions. The atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) runs are forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST) with varying atmospheric resolutions, while the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) runs have a fixed atmospheric resolution but varying oceanic resolutions. The phases, between the North Pacific (NP) and North Atlantic (NA) sectors, of the simulated hemisphere-scale Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) modes of the storm track fluctuations change with the model resolution, suggesting the storm track variability in NP and NA basins are largely independent. The models can qualitatively reproduce the basin-scale EOFs of both NP and NA storm track variability. These EOFs are not sensitive to either atmospheric or oceanic model horizontal resolutions, but their magnitudes from the CGCM runs are substantially underestimated. The storm track variations over NP basin are hybrid of internal atmospheric variations and external forcing from the underlying conditions, but the fluctuations over the NA basin are merely atmospheric internal variability. The NP storm track variability from SST forcing accounts for 4.4% of the total variance in observations, while it only has less than 2% of the total in all AGCM simulations. The external forcing to the storm track variations is more realistically reproduced in the higher atmospheric resolution runs. The air-sea coupling makes the SST feedbacks to the atmospheric internal variability, absent in the atmospheric ECMWF model hindcasts, emerge in the coupled CCSM simulations.

摘要

基于不同水平分辨率的欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）大气模式和美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）社区气候系统耦合模式（CCSM）系统，研究了模拟北半球风暴轴年际变率以及该变率与低频大气变化和海洋变化之间联系的模式逼真度。大气环流模式（AGCM）运行采用不同大气分辨率下的观测海表面温度（SST）作为强迫，而耦合环流模式（CGCM）运行具有固定的大气分辨率但海洋分辨率不同。风暴轴波动的模拟半球尺度经验正交函数（EOF）模态在北太平洋（NP）和北大西洋（NA）区域之间的位相随模式分辨率而变化，这表明NP和NA海盆的风暴轴变率在很大程度上是独立的。这些模式能够定性地再现NP和NA风暴轴变率的海盆尺度EOF。这些EOF对大气或海洋模式的水平分辨率均不敏感，但其在CGCM运行中的幅度被大幅低估。NP海盆上的风暴轴变化是大气内部变化和来自下垫面条件的外部强迫的混合，但NA海盆上的波动仅仅是大气内部变率。由SST强迫引起的NP风暴轴变率在观测总方差中占4.4%，而在所有AGCM模拟中其占比均不到2%。在较高大气分辨率的运行中，对风暴轴变化的外部强迫得到了更真实的再现。海气耦合使得在大气ECMWF模式后报中不存在的SST对大气内部变率的反馈在耦合CCSM模拟中出现。

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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/cb40e53aa505/382_2018_4378_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/a13b9218fcfe/382_2018_4378_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/b2de4372d812/382_2018_4378_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/12c8be3f09ff/382_2018_4378_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/12498f6d0892/382_2018_4378_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/6d7affe1819c/382_2018_4378_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/09ce51ff548f/382_2018_4378_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/8b3d3da68d55/382_2018_4378_Fig13_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/f858e4dae3b8/382_2018_4378_Fig14_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/cc6adc7f3046/382_2018_4378_Fig15_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0a30/6445401/e8c83398a06a/382_2018_4378_Fig16_HTML.jpg
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