BACKGROUND

Identifying reliable predictors of long-term weight loss (LTWL) could lead to improved weight management.

OBJECTIVE

To identify some predictors of LTWL.

DESIGN

The DPP (Diabetes Prevention Program) was a randomized controlled trial that compared weight loss with metformin, intensive lifestyle intervention (ILS), or placebo. Its Outcomes Study (DPPOS) observed patients after the masked treatment phase ended. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00004992 and NCT00038727).

SETTING

27 DPP and DPPOS clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

Of the 3234 randomly assigned participants, 1066 lost at least 5% of baseline weight in the first year and were followed for 15 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Treatment assignment, personal characteristics, and weight.

RESULTS

After 1 year, 289 (28.5%) participants in the metformin group, 640 (62.6%) in the ILS group, and 137 (13.4%) in the placebo group had lost at least 5% of their weight. After the masked treatment phase ended, the mean weight loss relative to baseline that was maintained between years 6 and 15 was 6.2% (95% CI, 5.2% to 7.2%) in the metformin group, 3.7% (CI, 3.1% to 4.4%) in the ILS group, and 2.8% (CI, 1.3% to 4.4%) in the placebo group. Independent predictors of LTWL included greater weight loss in the first year in all groups, older age and continued metformin use in the metformin group, older age and absence of either diabetes or a family history of diabetes in the ILS group, and higher fasting plasma glucose levels at baseline in the placebo group.

LIMITATION

Post hoc analysis; examination of nonrandomized subsets of randomized groups after year 1.

CONCLUSION

Among persons with weight loss of at least 5% after 1 year, those originally randomly assigned to metformin had the greatest loss during years 6 to 15. Older age and the amount of weight initially lost were the most consistent predictors of LTWL maintenance.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.