Early Development Biostatistics, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, East Hanover, New Jersey.
Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Stat Med. 2019 Jul 20;38(16):2905-2927. doi: 10.1002/sim.8160. Epub 2019 May 3.
Equal randomization has been a popular choice in clinical trial practice. However, in trials with heterogeneous variances and/or variable treatment costs, as well as in settings where maximization of every trial participant's benefit is an important design consideration, optimal allocation proportions may be unequal across study treatment arms. In this paper, we investigate optimal allocation designs minimizing study cost under statistical efficiency constraints for parallel group clinical trials comparing several investigational treatments against the control. We show theoretically that equal allocation designs may be suboptimal, and unequal allocation designs can provide higher statistical power for the same budget or result in a smaller cost for the same level of power. We also show how optimal allocation can be implemented in practice by means of restricted randomization procedures and how to perform statistical inference following these procedures, using invoked population-based or randomization-based approaches. Our results provide further support to some previous findings in the literature that unequal randomization designs can be cost efficient and can be successfully implemented in practice. We conclude that the choice of the target allocation, the randomization procedure, and the statistical methodology for data analysis is an essential component in ensuring valid, powerful, and robust clinical trial results.
均衡随机化一直是临床试验实践中的热门选择。然而,在方差不均匀和/或治疗费用变化的试验中,以及在最大化每个试验参与者获益是一个重要设计考虑因素的情况下,最优分配比例在研究治疗组之间可能是不均匀的。在本文中,我们研究了在统计效率约束下最小化研究成本的最优分配设计,这些设计适用于比较几种试验治疗与对照的平行组临床试验。我们从理论上证明,均等分配设计可能不是最优的,非均等分配设计可以在相同预算下提供更高的统计功效,或者在相同功效水平下导致更小的成本。我们还展示了如何通过受限随机化程序来实现最优分配,以及如何在这些程序下使用基于调用人群或基于随机化的方法进行统计推断。我们的结果进一步支持了文献中一些先前的发现,即非均等随机化设计可以具有成本效益,并可以在实践中成功实施。我们的结论是,目标分配、随机化程序和数据分析的统计方法的选择是确保有效、有力和稳健的临床试验结果的一个重要组成部分。