Plasma level of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) predicts long-term mortality after first acute alcohol-induced pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is a biomarker associated with inflammatory and certain malignancies. Earlier we have shown that plasma suPAR (P-suPAR) predicts severity of acute alcohol-induced pancreatitis (AAP) on admission. Our aim was to investigate whether P-suPAR levels predict AAP recurrences or mortality during long-term follow-up after first AAP.

METHODS

Eighty-three patients (median age 47.5, range 25-71 years) suffering their first AAP during 2001-2005 were recruited and followed prospectively for 9 years with a median follow-up time of 7.0 (range 0.3-9.8) years. P-suPAR was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) from the samples taken at follow-up visits. Survival was registered in November 2014.

RESULTS

P-suPAR level on admission or after recovery of the first AAP did not predict the recurrence of AAP. However, higher P-suPAR measured after recovery of first AAP (3.6 vs. 2.9 ng/mL) predicted mortality during follow-up period (hazard ratio 1.48, p = .008). Cut-off value for P-suPAR indicating a higher risk for 10-year mortality resulted a value of ≥3.4 ng/mL. When adjusted for other covariates, P-suPAR above cut-off level retained its statistical significance as an independent factor.

CONCLUSIONS

P-suPAR level on admission or after recovery of the first AAP does not predict the recurrence of AAP during long-term follow-up. However, P-suPAR ≥3.4 mg/mL measured after recovery from first AAP is associated with an increased risk of 10-year mortality as an independent factor. This can be used to detect patients with highest risk after AAP, in order to focus the preventive healthcare actions.