Antonova I V, Konstantinow-Siebelist I
Bull World Health Organ. 1978;56(6):931-5.
Analysis of clinical data collected by the epidemiological services in both countries showed that each shift or drift in the antigenic structure of the influenza virus resulted in epidemics in both countries. Depending on the degree of antigenic change, both shifts and drifts influenced the speed of epidemic spread and the time of occurrence and the intensity of the epidemics. However, the analyses did not reveal a direct relation between degree of antigenic variation and the attack rate or the severity of the epidemic. The mean attack rate in both countries was about 13% depending on the pathogenicity of the circulating virus. The severity of the epidemics varied in the two countries but the fourth epidemic after each shift was severe in both countries. The reasons for this and other features of the epidemiology are discussed.
对两国流行病学服务机构收集的临床数据进行分析后发现，流感病毒抗原结构的每次转变或漂移都会在两国引发疫情。根据抗原变化的程度，转变和漂移都会影响疫情传播速度、发生时间以及疫情强度。然而，分析并未揭示抗原变异程度与发病率或疫情严重程度之间的直接关系。根据流行病毒的致病性，两国的平均发病率约为13%。两国疫情的严重程度各不相同，但每次转变后的第四次疫情在两国都很严重。文中讨论了造成这种情况的原因以及流行病学的其他特征。
