Brown School, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, USA.
Child Maltreat. 2020 Feb;25(1):51-60. doi: 10.1177/1077559519846431. Epub 2019 May 16.
Housing insecurity and homelessness contribute to risk of maltreatment among one in five of the nearly 3.5 million children annually investigated for maltreatment in the United States. The Family Unification Program (FUP)-a federal initiative-connects inadequately housed families involved in child welfare with long-term rental subsidies to avoid foster placement. However, FUP remains understudied and underutilized with funding levels that serve only a fraction of eligible households. The present study uses system dynamics modeling to inform decision-making by testing policies for scaling FUP.
Simulations model delivery of FUP within child welfare from a feedback perspective. Calibrated on national data, models replicate trends in child welfare involvement from 2013 through 2016, and analyses forecast rates through 2019. Experiments test policies that enhance FUP. Outcomes track system-wide rates of family separation and returns on investment of expanded housing interventions.
Dramatic expansions of FUP benefit more families and improve marginal return on investment. Yet, scale-up fails to reduce system-wide rates of family separation or generates substantial cost-savings.
Simulations demonstrate structural challenges for scaling FUP. Constant demand for affordable housing constrains sustainable improvements in child protection. Child welfare responses to homelessness require innovations that reduce demand for housing services through prevention and earlier intervention.
住房无保障和无家可归导致每年在美国近 350 万受虐待儿童调查中，约五分之一的儿童面临虐待风险。家庭团聚计划（FUP）是一项联邦倡议，将住房不足的涉及儿童福利的家庭与长期租金补贴联系起来，以避免安置在寄养家庭中。然而，FUP 的研究仍然不足，资金水平仅为符合条件家庭的一小部分，利用率也很低。本研究使用系统动力学建模，通过测试扩大 FUP 的政策来为决策提供信息。
模拟从反馈角度在儿童福利中提供 FUP 的情况。根据全国数据进行校准，模型复制了 2013 年至 2016 年儿童福利参与的趋势，并分析预测了 2019 年的比率。实验测试了增强 FUP 的政策。结果跟踪了系统范围内家庭分离的比率和扩大住房干预措施的投资回报。
FUP 的大幅扩大使更多的家庭受益，并提高了投资回报率。然而，扩大规模并不能降低系统范围内家庭分离的比率，也不会产生大量的成本节约。
模拟表明扩大 FUP 存在结构性挑战。对经济适用房的持续需求限制了儿童保护的可持续改善。对无家可归问题的儿童福利应对需要通过预防和早期干预来减少对住房服务的需求的创新。
