Department of Healthcare Administration, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Department of Occupational Therapy, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Geriatr Gerontol Int. 2019 Jul;19(7):641-646. doi: 10.1111/ggi.13684. Epub 2019 May 16.
To determine the characteristics associated with developing a new need for long-term care among older Taiwanese adults.
We analyzed the 1999 and 2003 datasets of the Taiwan Longitudinal Survey on Aging. A total of 1986 persons who were aged ≥70 years and had no disability in activities of daily living or need for long-term care at the baseline served as the study participants. We first identified the potential variables associated with developing a need for long-term care in demographic, socioeconomic, anthropometric, functional status, mental health, medical and global domains based on the literature and our earlier studies. We then carried out univariable logistic regression analyses to identify the variables most strongly associated with developing a new need for long-term care within each domain. Variables showing the strongest association were further analyzed in a forward stepwise multivariable logistic regression model to determine the significant predictors.
The multivariable model identified age, sex, doing heavy housework, walking 200 m, carrying out calculation, appetite status, frequency of hospitalizations during the past 12 months, living arrangement and weight loss as significant (P < 0.05) predictors.
The present study identified nine characteristics that predict the subsequent 4-year new need for long-term care of ≥70-year-old Taiwanese adults. Age, sex and functional status are the most powerful predictors. The results are useful for identifying older individuals at risk of developing a new need for long-term care within the next 4 years, enabling implementation of preventive strategies or timely care planning. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 641-646.
确定与台湾老年成年人新的长期护理需求相关的特征。
我们分析了 1999 年和 2003 年的台湾老龄化纵向研究数据集。共有 1986 名年龄≥70 岁且在基线时无日常生活活动障碍或长期护理需求的人作为研究对象。我们首先根据文献和我们之前的研究，确定与发展长期护理需求相关的潜在变量，这些变量包括人口统计学、社会经济学、人体测量、功能状态、心理健康、医疗和总体领域。然后，我们进行单变量逻辑回归分析，以确定每个领域中与发展新的长期护理需求最相关的变量。在每个领域中，显示出最强关联的变量将进一步在向前逐步多变量逻辑回归模型中进行分析，以确定显著的预测因子。
多变量模型确定了年龄、性别、重度家务劳动、行走 200 米、进行计算、食欲状况、过去 12 个月住院次数、居住安排和体重减轻是显著的（P<0.05）预测因子。
本研究确定了九个特征，可预测≥70 岁台湾成年人未来 4 年新的长期护理需求。年龄、性别和功能状态是最有力的预测因子。研究结果有助于识别在未来 4 年内有发展新的长期护理需求风险的老年人，从而实施预防策略或及时进行护理计划。老年医学与老年病学国际 2019; 19: 641-646。
