Khaleel Hanan Abdulghafoor, Brown Sabrina, Fleming Steven, Christian W Jay
Surveillance Section, Communicable Diseases Control Center, Directorate of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Baghdad.
Geospat Health. 2019 May 14;14(1). doi: 10.4081/gh.2019.747.
To date, the association between the alcohol sale status of decedents' residence and alcohol-related homicide victimization have not been studied as far as we know. The current study aims to: i) determine whether homicide victims who were residents of wet counties had higher odds of testing positive for alcohol than their counterparts in moist or dry counties after adjusting for confounders; ii) determine whether homicides and alcohol-related homicides tend to cluster spatially; iii) determine whether the aforementioned associations exist only in highly-populated counties. A multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the data on homicide victims in the Kentucky Violent Death Reporting System from 2005 to 2012. Spatial statistics were used to determine the spatial autocorrelation in rates of homicides and alcohol-related homicides. Overall, 944 homicide victims were included. The male to female ratio was 3:1. About 32.8% of homicide victims tested positive for alcohol. About 33.0% of homicide decedents who were residents in wet counties tested positive for alcohol compared to 32.5% of their counterparts in moist/dry counties. Residence in wet counties was associated with a statistically insignificant increase in the unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of alcohol-related homicide victimization (OR=1.20, 95% CI=0.81-1.77) as well as the adjusted odds (aOR=1.33, 95% CI=0.83-2.12). There was no association between population size and alcohol-related homicide rate.
据我们所知，迄今为止尚未研究过死者居住地的酒精销售状况与酒精相关杀人受害情况之间的关联。当前的研究旨在：i）在对混杂因素进行调整后，确定居住在酒水销售许可县的杀人受害者酒精检测呈阳性的几率是否高于居住在酒水销售有限县或禁酒县的受害者；ii）确定杀人案件及与酒精相关的杀人案件是否倾向于在空间上聚集；iii）确定上述关联是否仅存在于人口密集的县。我们使用多水平逻辑回归分析对2005年至2012年肯塔基州暴力死亡报告系统中杀人受害者的数据进行了分析。使用空间统计方法来确定杀人案件及与酒精相关的杀人案件发生率的空间自相关性。总体而言，共纳入了944名杀人受害者。男女比例为3:1。约32.8%的杀人受害者酒精检测呈阳性。居住在酒水销售许可县的杀人死者中约33.0%酒精检测呈阳性，而居住在酒水销售有限/禁酒县的同类死者这一比例为32.5%。居住在酒水销售许可县与酒精相关杀人受害情况的未调整优势比（OR）有统计学上不显著的增加（OR = 1.20，95%置信区间 = 0.81 - 1.77）以及调整后的优势比（aOR = 1.33，95%置信区间 = 0.83 - 2.12）。人口规模与酒精相关杀人率之间没有关联。
