Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria.
Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey.
J Environ Manage. 2019 Aug 15;244:265-275. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.048. Epub 2019 May 22.
This study investigates whether the dynamic effects of globalization and energy consumption can lead to a significant rise in South Africa's environmental degradation. Specifically, the study investigates which among the combinations of the variable of globalization, energy use, and economic growth is possessive with the dynamics of influencing upward or downward movement of South Africa's environmental degradation and hence Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). To ensure robust and parsimonious result, time series data from 1971 to 2014 was used. The structural breaks from the Maki cointegration tests were incorporated in the FMOLS and CRR models for the dynamic long-run estimates while the short-run estimates were obtained from the conditional Error Correction Model (ECM) regression. The direction of causality was investigated using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The finding from this test was validated using the innovation accounting analysis and the impulse response function. The results established the existence of an upward EKC dynamics, which bear a major linkage from the excessive fossil fuel energy use in South Africa. While globalization, was detected to condense environmental degradation in the short-run irrespective of the degree of economic growth attained by the country. Complementing this finding was the Toda-Yamamoto test, which established the existence of a one-way causality running from energy use to environmental degradation and again, a two-way causality between economic growth and globalization. The innovation accounting test revealed that 7.96% and 0.80% of energy use and globalization could lead to corresponding environmental degradation of 72.52% and 1.39% respectively. The study, therefore, advocates the need for conservative energy policies and pollution-free energy mix. How to achieve these are carefully outlined by the present study.
本研究调查全球化和能源消耗的动态效应是否会导致南非环境恶化显著加剧。具体而言，本研究调查在全球化、能源使用和经济增长的变量组合中，哪一种具有影响力，可以导致南非环境退化的向上或向下动态变化，从而影响环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）。为了确保稳健和简约的结果，使用了 1971 年至 2014 年的时间序列数据。在 FMOLS 和 CRR 模型中纳入了来自 Maki 协整检验的结构断裂，以进行动态长期估计，而短期估计则从条件误差校正模型（ECM）回归中获得。使用 Toda-Yamamoto 因果关系检验来调查因果关系的方向。使用创新核算分析和脉冲响应函数验证了该检验的结果。结果表明存在向上的 EKC 动态，这主要与南非过度使用化石燃料能源有关。虽然全球化在短期内被检测到会加剧环境恶化，而不论该国经济增长程度如何。这一发现得到了 Toda-Yamamoto 检验的补充，该检验确立了从能源使用到环境恶化的单向因果关系，以及经济增长和全球化之间的双向因果关系。创新核算测试显示，能源使用和全球化分别有 7.96%和 0.80%的可能性导致相应的环境退化 72.52%和 1.39%。因此，该研究主张需要采取保守的能源政策和无污染的能源组合。本研究详细概述了如何实现这些目标。
