Schwarz Jana, Mathijs Erik, Maertens Miet
Division of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Belgium.
Division of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Belgium.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Sep 15;683:719-728. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.118. Epub 2019 May 14.
Increasing integration in global markets can foster economic growth, but also impacts the use of water resources for the production of traded goods. This is particularly critical for low-and middle-income countries where increasing agricultural exports, especially of high-value horticultural products such as fresh fruits and vegetables is promoted as a pro-poor development strategy. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of agricultural trade to virtual water flows and economic gains. The focus is on Peru and trade flows since 1986, as this represents a case of rapidly increasing trade flows and a rapidly changing product composition of trade. We consider long-term trade trends and changes in the product composition of trade, using a product classification, and analyze the implications for trade revenues, VW flows, blue and green water use, and economic water use efficiency. We use an innovative decomposition analysis to disentangle the drivers behind increased virtual water exports. We find that despite sharp increase in agricultural exports Peru is a net importer of virtual water, which implies that participation in international trade has been conducive for both economic growth and saving water resources at national level. We find agricultural exports to have a high economic water efficiency but to increase water scarcity and the use of blue water in producing regions. Our results imply that a focus on high-value export sectors is a valid development strategy for low- and middle-income countries from both an economic and a water perspective but that the strategic location of export production with respect to the availability of water is important for policy-makers to consider. Our approach confirms the importance of considering long-term dynamics and regional differences in research on virtual water trade.
全球市场一体化程度的提高能够促进经济增长，但也会影响用于贸易商品生产的水资源利用。这对低收入和中等收入国家尤为关键，在这些国家，增加农业出口，特别是新鲜水果和蔬菜等高价值园艺产品的出口，被作为一项扶贫发展战略加以推动。本文旨在量化农业贸易对虚拟水流动和经济收益的贡献。重点是秘鲁及其自1986年以来的贸易流动情况，因为这代表了一个贸易流动迅速增加且贸易产品构成快速变化的案例。我们采用产品分类法，考虑长期贸易趋势和贸易产品构成的变化，分析其对贸易收入、虚拟水流动、蓝水和绿水利用以及经济用水效率的影响。我们运用一种创新的分解分析方法来厘清虚拟水出口增加背后的驱动因素。我们发现，尽管秘鲁的农业出口大幅增长，但其仍是虚拟水的净进口国，这意味着参与国际贸易对经济增长和国家层面的水资源节约都有利。我们发现农业出口具有较高的经济用水效率，但会加剧生产地区的水资源短缺和蓝水使用。我们的研究结果表明，从经济和水资源角度来看，关注高价值出口部门对低收入和中等收入国家来说是一项有效的发展战略，但出口生产相对于水资源可利用性的战略位置对政策制定者来说很重要，需要加以考虑。我们的方法证实了在虚拟水贸易研究中考虑长期动态和区域差异的重要性。
