Wageningen Food Safety Research (previously RIKILT), Part of Wageningen University and Research, Akkermaalsbos, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Business Economics, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2019 Oct;39(10):2227-2236. doi: 10.1111/risa.13364. Epub 2019 Jun 27.
An optimization model was used to gain insight into cost-effective monitoring plans for aflatoxins along the maize supply chain. The model was based on a typical Dutch maize chain, with maize grown in the Black Sea region, and transported by ship to the Netherlands for use as an ingredient in compound feed for dairy cattle. Six different scenarios, with different aflatoxin concentrations at harvest and possible aflatoxin production during transport, were used. By minimizing the costs and using parameters such as the concentration, the variance of the sampling plan, and the monitoring and replacement costs, the model optimized the control points (CPs; e.g., after harvest, before or after transport by sea ship), the number of batches sampled at the CP, and the number of samples per batch. This optimization approach led to an end-of-chain aflatoxin concentration below the predetermined limit. The model showed that, when postharvest aflatoxin production was not possible, it was most cost-effective to collect samples from all batches and replace contaminated batches directly after the harvest, since the replacement costs were the lowest at the origin of the chain. When there was aflatoxin production during storage, it was most cost-effective to collect samples and replace contaminated batches after storage and transport to avoid the duplicate before and after monitoring and replacement costs. Further along the chain a contaminated batch is detected, the more stakeholders are involved, the more expensive the replacement costs and possible recall costs become.
采用优化模型深入了解玉米供应链中黄曲霉毒素的经济有效监测计划。该模型基于典型的荷兰玉米链，玉米生长在黑海地区，然后用船运到荷兰，用作奶牛配合饲料的原料。使用了六种不同的方案，方案中在收获时具有不同的黄曲霉毒素浓度，并可能在运输过程中产生黄曲霉毒素。通过最小化成本并使用浓度、采样计划的方差以及监测和替换成本等参数，模型优化了控制点（CP；例如，收获后、海运前后）、CP 处采集的批次数量以及每个批次的样本数量。这种优化方法导致最终链上的黄曲霉毒素浓度低于预定的限制。该模型表明，当收获后不可能产生黄曲霉毒素时，从所有批次收集样本并在收获后直接替换污染批次最具成本效益，因为在供应链的起点替换成本最低。当储存期间发生黄曲霉毒素生产时，最具成本效益的方法是在储存和运输后收集样本并替换污染批次，以避免重复监测和替换成本。在供应链中进一步发现受污染的批次时，涉及的利益相关者越多，替换成本和可能的召回成本就越高。
