Jasiński Dominik, Meredith James, Kirwan Kerry
1Warwick Manufacturing Group, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL UK.
2Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S1 3JD UK.
Int J Life Cycle Assess. 2018;23(4):773-786. doi: 10.1007/s11367-017-1329-4. Epub 2017 May 11.
A surplus cost potential (SCP) indicator has been developed as a measure of resource scarcity in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) context. To date, quality SCP estimates for other minerals than fossils are either not yet available or suffer methodological and data limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations and demonstrate how SCP estimates for metals can be calculated without the utilisation of ore grade function and by collecting primary economic and geological data.
Data were collected in line with the geographical distribution, mine type, deposit type and production volumes and total production costs in order to construct cost-cumulative availability curves for platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium. These curves capture the total amount of known mineral resources that can be recovered profitably at various prices from different types of mineral deposits under current conditions (this is, current technology, prevailing labour and other input prices). They served as a basis for modelling the marginal cost increase, a necessary parameter for estimating the SCP indicator. Surplus costs were calculated for different scenario projections for future mineral production considering future market dynamics, recyclability rates, demand-side technological developments and economic growth and by applying declining social discount rate.
Surplus costs were calculated for three mineral production scenarios, ranging from (US$/kg) 6545-8354 for platinum, 3583-4573 for palladium, 8281-10,569 for rhodium, 513-655 for ruthenium, 3201-4086 for iridium and 1.70-5.80 for lithium. Compared with the current production costs, the results indicate that problematic price increases of lithium are unlikely if the latest technological trends in the automotive sector will continue up to 2070. Surplus costs for PGMs are approximately one-third of the current production costs in all scenarios; hence, a threat of their price increases by 2070 will largely depend on the discovery of new deposits and the ability of new technologies to push these costs down over time. This also applies to lithium if the increasing electrification of road transport will continue up to 2070.
This study provides useful insight into the availability of PGMs and lithium up to 2070. It proves that if time and resources permit, reliable surplus cost estimates can be calculated, at least in the short-run, based on the construction of one's own curves with the level of quality comparable to expert-driven consulting services. Modelling and incorporating unknown deposits and potential future mineral production costs into these curves is the subject of future work.
已开发出一种剩余成本潜力（SCP）指标，作为生命周期影响评估（LCIA）背景下资源稀缺性的一种度量。迄今为止，除化石燃料外的其他矿物的高质量SCP估计要么尚未可得，要么存在方法和数据方面的局限性。本文克服了这些局限性，并展示了如何在不使用矿石品位函数的情况下，通过收集主要经济和地质数据来计算金属的SCP估计值。
根据地理分布、矿山类型、矿床类型、产量以及总成本来收集数据，以便构建铂族金属（PGM）和锂的成本累积可用性曲线。这些曲线反映了在当前条件下（即当前技术、现行劳动力和其他投入价格），不同类型矿床在各种价格下能够盈利回收的已知矿产资源总量。它们作为模拟边际成本增加的基础，而边际成本增加是估计SCP指标的一个必要参数。考虑到未来市场动态、回收率、需求侧技术发展和经济增长，并应用递减的社会贴现率，针对未来矿产生产的不同情景预测计算了剩余成本。
计算了三种矿产生产情景下的剩余成本，铂为6545 - 8354美元/千克，钯为3583 - 4573美元/千克，铑为8281 - 10569美元/千克，钌为513 - 655美元/千克，铱为3201 - 4086美元/千克，锂为1.70 - 5.80美元/千克。与当前生产成本相比，结果表明，如果汽车行业的最新技术趋势持续到2070年，锂出现问题性价格上涨的可能性不大。在所有情景下，PGM的剩余成本约为当前生产成本的三分之一；因此，到2070年它们价格上涨的威胁在很大程度上取决于新矿床的发现以及新技术随着时间推移降低这些成本的能力。如果道路运输的电气化程度持续增加到2070年，这一点对锂也适用。
本研究为到2070年PGM和锂的可用性提供了有用的见解。它证明，如果时间和资源允许，至少在短期内，可以基于构建自身曲线来计算可靠的剩余成本估计值，其质量水平与专家驱动的咨询服务相当。将未知矿床和潜在未来矿产生产成本纳入这些曲线进行建模是未来工作的主题。
