Swedish Species Information Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7007, Uppsala, SE-75007, Sweden.
Independent Researcher, Helsinki, Finland.
Ecology. 2019 Oct;100(10):e02814. doi: 10.1002/ecy.2814. Epub 2019 Aug 14.
Occurrence patterns of many sessile species in dynamic landscapes are not in equilibrium due to their slow rates of metapopulation colonization and extinction. Colonization-extinction data enable the estimation of colonization rates for such species, but collecting the necessary data may require long waiting times between sampling years. Methods for estimating colonization rates of nonequilibrium metapopulations from single occurrence-pattern data have so far relied on additional data on patch ages and on past patch connectivities. We present an approach where metapopulation colonization rates are estimated from occurrence-pattern data and from disturbance history data that inform of past patch dynamics and that can be collected together with occurrence-pattern data. We estimated parameter values regulating patch and metapopulation dynamics by simulating patch network and metapopulation histories that result in present-like patch network configurations and metapopulation occurrence patterns. We tested our approach using occurrence-pattern data of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria in Fennoscandian forests, and fire-scar data that inform of the 400-yr history of fires and host tree dynamics in the same landscapes. The estimated model parameters were similar to estimates obtained using colonization-extinction data. The projected L. pulmonaria occupancy into the future also agreed with the respective projections that were made using the model estimated from colonization-extinction data. Our approach accelerates the estimation of metapopulation colonization rates for sessile species that are not in metapopulation equilibrium with the current landscape structure.
由于其种群扩散和灭绝的缓慢速度，许多固着物种在动态景观中的出现模式并不处于平衡状态。扩散-灭绝数据使我们能够估计这些物种的扩散率，但收集必要的数据可能需要在采样年份之间等待很长时间。从单一出现模式数据估计非平衡集合种群扩散率的方法迄今为止依赖于有关斑块年龄和过去斑块连通性的附加数据。我们提出了一种方法，通过出现模式数据和干扰历史数据来估计集合种群的扩散率，这些数据可以与出现模式数据一起收集。我们通过模拟导致当前斑块网络配置和集合种群出现模式的斑块网络和集合种群历史来估计调节斑块和集合种群动态的参数值。我们使用在北欧森林中生长的附生地衣肺衣的出现模式数据以及火疤数据来检验我们的方法，火疤数据可以提供过去 400 年的火灾历史和同一景观中的宿主树动态信息。估计的模型参数与使用扩散-灭绝数据获得的估计值相似。对未来肺衣占据的预测也与使用从扩散-灭绝数据估计的模型做出的预测一致。我们的方法加速了对与当前景观结构不一致的非平衡集合种群的固着物种的集合种群扩散率的估计。
