Evolutionary Stress Ecology and Ecotoxicology, University of Leuven, Deberiotstraat 32, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Evolutionary Stress Ecology and Ecotoxicology, University of Leuven, Deberiotstraat 32, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
Curr Opin Insect Sci. 2019 Oct;35:10-19. doi: 10.1016/j.cois.2019.06.001. Epub 2019 Jun 8.
Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.
证明物种为了应对全球变暖而发生进化的可能性很重要，但也极具挑战性。我们讨论了如何利用三个空间热梯度（纬度、海拔和城市化）作为自然实验室，通过应用时空替代（SFTS）方法来了解种群的渐进热进化。我们比较了每种梯度的热变量和混杂的非热生物变量、方法学方法和与进化相关的方面。基于对最近昆虫研究的综述，我们表明 SFTS 的一个关键假设，即沿着这些梯度的局部热适应，通常但不总是成立的，需要明确验证。为了在应用 SFTS 时提高现实性，我们强调了整合每日温度波动、多种胁迫和多种相互作用的物种的重要性。最后，比较研究，特别是跨梯度类型的比较研究，对于提供在逐渐变暖的全球环境下进化的更稳健推断非常重要。整合这些研究方向将进一步加强仍未得到充分利用但功能强大的 SFTS 方法，以推断在全球变暖下的渐进进化。
