气候变化对蜂鸟传粉植物地理分布和开花物候的时空影响。
Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.
机构信息
Departamento de Botânica, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Campus Centro Politécnico, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil.
Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
出版信息
Ann Bot. 2019 Oct 18;124(3):389-398. doi: 10.1093/aob/mcz079.
BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS
Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.
METHODS
We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.
KEY RESULTS
Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.
CONCLUSIONS
Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.
背景与目的
热带植物物种已经受到气候变化的影响，预计未来几十年还会发生更大的变化。特别令人关注的是开花物候的改变，因为它被认为是一种适应特性，是植物物种生态位的一部分，可能会对植物-传粉者相互作用产生级联效应。本研究旨在评估气候变化对蜂鸟传粉植物地理分布和开花物候的潜在影响。
方法
我们实施了生态位模型（ENM）来研究不同气候变化情景对 62 种蜂鸟传粉植物在巴西大西洋森林中的地理分布和开花物候的潜在影响。
主要结果
分布模型表明，它们当前栖息地的气候适宜性未来可能会发生变化，表明存在不连续性、减少和空间位移的趋势。开花模型表明，气候可能以不同的方式影响物种的物候：一些物种的开花适宜性可能增加，而另一些物种的开花适宜性可能减少。
结论
我们的结果表明，蜂鸟传粉物种容易在不同的气候情景下发生地理分布和开花变化。这种变化可能会影响生态网络的群落结构和热带植物在不久的将来的繁殖成功率。
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