Department of Environmental parasitology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences.
Department of Parasitology, National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
Jpn J Infect Dis. 2019 Nov 21;72(6):399-406. doi: 10.7883/yoken.JJID.2019.094. Epub 2019 Jul 31.
An outbreak of autochthonous dengue fever occurred in the summer of 2014 in Tokyo, Japan. Numerous participants and spectators from abroad are expected to visit Tokyo in the summer of 2020. This study aims to analyze the risk of autochthonous dengue infections in Tokyo in summer and also assess the additional risk in the Olympiad using a mathematical model. A stochastic transmission model was developed with the cooperation of seasonal factors that greatly influence the transmission cycle of dengue virus, and stochastic simulations were conducted for each scenario provided adequately. This study found that (i) the incidence of dengue autochthonous infections is predicted to occur in a small number of cases; (ii) the local climate greatly influences the scale of dengue autochthonous infections; (iii) the incidence reaches its peak in August and early September; and (iv) the possibility of progressing to dengue outbreak is rare. In the Olympiad to be held in the summer of 2020, an additional risk of dengue autochthonous infections will amount to double compared with that in other years.
2014 年夏季，日本东京发生了一起本地登革热疫情。预计 2020 年夏季将有大量来自国外的参与者和观众访问东京。本研究旨在使用数学模型分析 2020 年夏季东京本地登革热感染的风险，并评估奥运会期间的额外风险。本研究通过与极大影响登革热病毒传播周期的季节性因素合作，开发了一个随机传播模型，并为每个提供的场景进行了充分的随机模拟。研究结果表明：(i) 预计会发生少量本地登革热感染病例；(ii) 当地气候极大地影响了本地登革热感染的规模；(iii) 发病率在 8 月和 9 月初达到高峰；(iv) 进展为登革热爆发的可能性较小。在 2020 年夏季举行的奥运会期间，与其他年份相比，本地登革热感染的额外风险将增加一倍。
