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广告牌对郊区公路事故影响的研究:比较三个时期——广告牌存在时、移除时和恢复时。

An examination of billboard impacts on crashes on a suburban highway: Comparing three periods-Billboards present, removed, and restored.

机构信息

Transportation Research Institute, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.

Technion Statistical Laboratory, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2019;20(sup2):S69-S74. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2019.1645330. Epub 2019 Aug 13.

Abstract

Advertisement billboards on roadsides distract drivers from driving tasks and may increase the risk of crashes. Yet, empirical evidence on the direct impact of advertisement signs on crashes is scarce. The Ayalon Highway in Israel is a suburban highway crossing the greater Tel Aviv-Yafo metropolitan area. Following debates in parliament, advertising billboards were removed from the road in 2008 and restored mid-2009. This study examined the impact of advertising billboards on crashes while considering 2 interventions: Removing (or covering) existing billboards and their subsequent restoration. Three periods of billboard presence were defined: Period 0, when billboards were visible; period 1, when billboards were removed; and period 2, when billboards became visible again. Crash changes associated with each intervention were estimated by comparing period 1 vs. period 0 and period 2 vs. period 1, respectively, and by comparing vs. control groups. Negative-binomial regression models were fitted to the monthly crash counts, while controlling for time period, site group (treatment or control), and seasonal effect. Removing the billboards was associated with a decrease of 30 to 40% in injury crashes and restoring the billboards was associated with an increase of 40 to 50% in injury crashes. The crash changes were consistent across various analyses. The estimated decrease in crash numbers during the removal period was up to 100 damage-only crashes and 50 injury crashes per year, and the estimated increase in crashes after billboard restoration was up to 120 damage-only crashes and 30 injury crashes a year. The study provided empirical evidence on the positive safety impact of removing billboard advertising from the roadsides of a suburban highway and of the negative safety impact of billboard restoration. The stronger impact values found in the study, compared to previous research, may be related to the high frequency of conspicuous billboards along the road and to complicated traffic conditions on the road-a heavily traveled route with a high density of interchanges-that might strengthen the negative impact of driver distraction due to advertising billboards.

摘要

道路旁的广告看板会分散驾驶员的注意力,从而增加事故发生的风险。然而,关于广告看板对事故的直接影响的经验证据却很少。以色列的 Ayalon 高速公路是一条穿过特拉维夫-雅法大都市区的郊区高速公路。在议会进行辩论后,2008 年道路上的广告看板被移除,并于 2009 年中期恢复。本研究在考虑 2 种干预措施的情况下,检验了广告看板对事故的影响:移除(或覆盖)现有的看板及其随后的恢复。定义了三个看板存在时期:时期 0,看板可见;时期 1,看板被移除;时期 2,看板再次可见。通过比较时期 1 与时期 0 以及时期 2 与时期 1,分别估计与每个干预措施相关的碰撞变化,并与对照组进行比较。每月的碰撞次数采用负二项回归模型进行拟合,同时控制时间周期、地点组(处理或对照)和季节性效应。移除看板与伤害事故减少 30%至 40%相关,而恢复看板与伤害事故增加 40%至 50%相关。各种分析结果一致。在移除期间,估计碰撞数量减少了 100 起仅有损害的碰撞和 50 起受伤的碰撞,而在恢复看板后,估计每年增加了 120 起仅有损害的碰撞和 30 起受伤的碰撞。该研究为从郊区高速公路路边移除看板广告的积极安全影响以及看板恢复的消极安全影响提供了经验证据。与之前的研究相比,研究中发现的更强的影响值可能与道路沿线显眼的看板的高频率以及道路上复杂的交通状况有关——这是一条交通流量大、交叉口密度高的道路,这可能会因广告看板而导致驾驶员分心的负面影响加剧。

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