Bartoli Gianni, Betti Michele, Marra Antonino Maria, Monchetti Silvia
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, via di S. Marta 3, I-50139 Florence, Italy.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2019 Sep 7;377(2155):20190024. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0024. Epub 2019 Aug 19.
Seismic assessment of existing masonry structures requires a numerical model able to both reproduce their nonlinear behaviour and account for the different sources of uncertainties; the latter have to be dealt with since the unavoidable lack of knowledge on the input parameters (material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, etc.) has a relevant effect on the reliability of the seismic response provided by the numerical approaches. The steadily increasing necessity of combining different sources of information/knowledge makes the Bayesian approach an appealing technique, not yet fully investigated for historic masonry constructions. In fact, while the Bayesian paradigm is currently employed to solve inverse problems in several sectors of the structural engineering domain, only a few studies pay attention to its effectiveness for parameter identification on historic masonry structures. This study combines a Bayesian framework with probabilistic structural analyses: starting from the Bayesian finite element model updating by using experimental data it provides the definition of robust seismic fragility curves for non-isolated masonry towers. A comparison between this method and the standard deterministic approach illustrates its benefits. This article is part of the theme issue 'Environmental loading of heritage structures'.
对现有砌体结构进行地震评估需要一个能够再现其非线性行为并考虑不同不确定性来源的数值模型；由于不可避免地缺乏关于输入参数（材料特性、几何形状、边界条件等）的知识，这会对数值方法提供的地震响应可靠性产生重大影响，因此必须处理这些不确定性。将不同信息/知识来源相结合的需求日益增加，这使得贝叶斯方法成为一种有吸引力的技术，但对于历史砌体建筑尚未得到充分研究。事实上，虽然贝叶斯范式目前被用于解决结构工程领域多个部门的反问题，但只有少数研究关注其在历史砌体结构参数识别方面的有效性。本研究将贝叶斯框架与概率结构分析相结合：从使用实验数据更新贝叶斯有限元模型开始，它为非隔震砌体塔提供了稳健的地震易损性曲线的定义。将该方法与标准确定性方法进行比较说明了其优点。本文是主题为“遗产结构的环境荷载”的一部分。
