School of Economics, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing, 211815, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Oct;26(29):30399-30412. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06251-2. Epub 2019 Aug 22.
As the largest emitter of CO emissions, the installed capacity of thermal power generation in China is facing more and more strict restrictions, since the Chinese government proposed to dissolve overcapacity and intends to solve the problem of continuous reduction in utilization rate of electricity sector. Regretfully, the impact of power-generating capacity and its utilization on carbon emissions in the power sector has not yet been addressed. In this study, we incorporate the interaction between capacity and utilization of power sector into the dynamic spatial Durbin model, and estimate the specific impact on carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector based on the panel data set of China's provinces during 1991-2015. The results show that both installed capacity and utilization rate have positive effects on CO emissions. Interestingly, the estimation coefficient of their interaction term is negative, implying that the carbon emission reduction effect derives from the conflicting performance of capacity governance and utilization efficiency. Besides, the advantage of the emerging econometric method, the dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) with provinces and time-period fixed effects, is that it can estimate spatial interaction effects among the provinces and neighboring provinces and decompose those effects into two parts: long-term and short-term. However, the estimates indicate that only capacity has roughly significant spatial spillovers. As a result, dissolving overcapacity of thermal power generation and a necessary interprovincial coordination will promote carbon emission reduction rather than investing in coal-fired power plants, and the power authority should turn to alternative investment in cleaner power generation technologies.
作为 CO 排放的最大排放国，中国的火电装机容量面临着越来越严格的限制，因为中国政府提出要化解过剩产能，并打算解决电力部门的利用率持续下降的问题。遗憾的是，发电能力及其利用对电力部门碳排放的影响尚未得到解决。在本研究中，我们将电力部门的产能与利用之间的相互作用纳入动态空间杜宾模型，并根据中国 1991-2015 年的省级面板数据，估计电力部门二氧化碳排放的具体影响。结果表明，装机容量和利用率都对 CO 排放有正向影响。有趣的是，其交互项的估计系数为负，这意味着减排效果来自于产能治理与利用效率之间的冲突表现。此外，新兴计量方法——具有省级和时间固定效应的动态空间杜宾模型（SDM）的优势在于，它可以估计各省份之间和相邻省份之间的空间相互作用，并将这些效应分解为两部分：长期和短期。然而，估计结果表明，只有产能具有大致显著的空间溢出效应。因此，化解火电过剩产能和必要的省际协调将促进碳减排，而不是投资于燃煤电厂，电力部门应转向对更清洁的发电技术的替代投资。
