Eckerd College, 4200 54th Ave S, St. Petersburg, FL, 33711, USA.
School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave, Tampa, FL, 33620, USA.
Environ Manage. 2019 Oct;64(4):416-435. doi: 10.1007/s00267-019-01200-8. Epub 2019 Aug 22.
Scenarios modeling can be a useful tool to plan for climate change. In this study, we help Everglades restoration planning to bolster climate change resiliency by simulating plausible ecosystem responses to three climate change scenarios: a Baseline scenario of 2010 climate, and two scenarios that both included 1.5 °C warming and 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and differed only by rainfall: either increase or decrease by 10%. In conjunction with output from a water-use management model, we used these scenarios to drive the Everglades Landscape Model to simulate changes in a suite of parameters that include both hydrologic drivers and changes to soil pattern and process. In this paper we focus on the freshwater wetlands; sea level rise is specifically addressed in prior work. The decreased rainfall scenario produced marked changes across the system in comparison to the Baseline scenario. Most notably, muck fire risk was elevated for 49% of the period of simulation in one of the three indicator regions. Surface water flow velocity slowed drastically across most of the system, which may impair soil processes related to maintaining landscape patterning. Due to lower flow volumes, this scenario produced decreases in parameters related to flow-loading, such as phosphorus accumulation in the soil, and methylmercury production risk. The increased rainfall scenario was hydrologically similar to the Baseline scenario due to existing water management rules. A key change was phosphorus accumulation in the soil, an effect of flow-loading due to higher inflow from water control structures in this scenario.
情景建模可以成为规划气候变化的有用工具。在这项研究中，我们通过模拟三种气候变化情景下的生态系统可能的响应，来帮助大沼泽地的恢复规划，以增强其对气候变化的适应能力：2010 年气候的基线情景，以及两个包含 1.5°C 升温并增加 7%蒸散量的情景，两者仅在降雨量上有所不同：增加或减少 10%。结合水利用管理模型的输出，我们使用这些情景来驱动大沼泽地景观模型，模拟一系列参数的变化，包括水文驱动因素以及土壤模式和过程的变化。在本文中，我们重点关注淡水湿地；海平面上升在之前的工作中专门讨论过。与基线情景相比，降雨量减少的情景在整个系统中产生了显著的变化。最值得注意的是，在三个指标区域中的一个区域，49%的模拟期间，泥煤火灾风险显著升高。由于大部分系统的地表水流速急剧减缓，这可能会损害与维持景观格局有关的土壤过程。由于流量减少，该情景导致与流量负荷相关的参数减少，例如土壤中磷的积累和甲基汞产生风险。由于现有的水管理规则，降雨量增加的情景在水文上与基线情景相似。一个关键的变化是土壤中磷的积累，这是由于该情景中来自水控结构的更高流入量导致的流量负荷效应。
