Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XH, UK.
School of Diagnostic and Applied Health Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Raja Muda A. Aziz, 50300 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2019 Aug 4;2019:1923479. doi: 10.1155/2019/1923479. eCollection 2019.
In this paper, we will start off by introducing the classical Ross-Macdonald model for vector-borne diseases which we use to describe the transmission of dengue between humans and mosquitoes in Shah Alam, which is a city and the state capital of Selangor, Malaysia. We will focus on analysing the effect of using the Mosquito Home System (MHS), which is an example of an autodissemination trap, in reducing the number of dengue cases by changing the Ross-Macdonald model. By using the national dengue data from Malaysia, we are able to estimate , which represents the initial growth rate of the dengue epidemic, and this allows us to estimate the number of mosquitoes in Malaysia. A mathematical expression is also constructed which allows us to estimate the potential number of breeding sites of mosquitoes. By using the data available from the MHS trial carried out in Section 15 of Shah Alam, we included the potential effect of the MHS into the dengue model and thus modelled the impact MHS has on the spread of dengue within the trial area. We then extended our results to analyse the effect of the MHSs on reducing the number of dengue cases in the whole of Malaysia. A new model was constructed with a basic reproduction number, , which allows us to identify the required MHSs coverage needed to achieve extinction in Malaysia. Numerical simulations and tables of results were also produced to illustrate our results.
在本文中,我们将首先介绍经典的罗斯-麦克唐纳虫媒疾病模型,该模型用于描述马来西亚雪兰莪州首府莎阿南的登革热在人类和蚊子之间的传播。我们将重点分析使用蚊子家居系统(MHS)的效果,这是一种自动传播陷阱的例子,通过改变罗斯-麦克唐纳模型来减少登革热病例的数量。通过使用来自马来西亚的全国登革热数据,我们能够估计代表登革热疫情初始增长率的参数 ,并由此估计马来西亚的蚊子数量。还构建了一个数学表达式,用于估计蚊子的潜在繁殖地数量。通过使用在莎阿南第 15 区进行的 MHS 试验中可用的数据,我们将 MHS 的潜在影响纳入登革热模型中,从而在试验区域内模拟了 MHS 对登革热传播的影响。然后,我们将结果扩展到分析 MHS 对减少马来西亚全国登革热病例数的影响。构建了一个新的模型,其中包括基本繁殖数 ,这使我们能够确定在马来西亚实现灭绝所需的 MHS 覆盖范围。还生成了数值模拟和结果表格来说明我们的结果。