De-escalating chemotherapy for stage II colon cancer?

BACKGROUND

Although adjuvant chemotherapy is recommended for patients with stage II colon cancer characterized by poor prognostic features, its pros and cons remain a controversial issue. We aim to evaluate the real effectiveness of chemotherapy on stage II colon cancer as well as select suitable patients.

METHODS

Patients during 1988-2013 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The competing risk regression model and propensity score matching method were used to evaluate colon-cancer-specific death (CCSD) and non-CCSD. Also, a competing-risk nomogram was constructed to identify risk of patients. Risk score (RS) was calculated according to nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 58,133 patients were included, 25.66% received chemotherapy, and 74.34% were without chemotherapy. In total, 19.95% and 25.78% of patients died of CCSD and non-CCSD, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that receiving chemotherapy appears to be associated with more CCSD and less non-CCSD (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28; HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.43-0.47, respectively), even after adjustment for covariates and propensity score weighting. A competing-risk nomogram was established; the model was relatively good with a C-index of 0.661. Based on the RS, risk stage could only predict prognosis but failed to predict the benefit from chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The value of chemotherapy is much less than we thought. It is time to de-escalate chemotherapy for stage II colon cancer. CCSD, rather than overall survival, should be considered as an appropriate primary end point for future trials in stage II colon cancer.