Am Nat. 2019 Oct;194(4):516-528. doi: 10.1086/702313. Epub 2019 Apr 9.
Phenological shifts are the most commonly reported ecological responses to climate change and can be produced rapidly by phenotypic plasticity. However, both the limits of plasticity and whether it will be sufficient to maintain local adaptation (or even lead to maladaptation) are less clear. Increased winter precipitation has been shown to lead to phenological delays and corresponding annual decreases in fitness in Columbian ground squirrels (). We took advantage of natural phenological variation (across elevations) in this species to better assess the extent of phenotypic plasticity in emergence dates and the relationships between emergence dates and individual annual fitness. We coupled a reciprocal translocation experiment with natural monitoring across two populations separated by ∼500 m in elevation. Individuals in both populations responded plastically to both spring temperature and winter precipitation. Translocated individuals adjusted their emergence dates to approach those of individuals in their adoptive populations but did differ significantly in their emergence dates from residents. There were no differences in annual fitness among treatment groups nor selection on emergence date within a year. Phenotypic plasticity is thus sufficient to allow individuals to respond to broad environmental gradients, but the influence of variation in emergence dates on annual fitness requires further investigation.
物候变化是对气候变化最常见的生态响应,并且可以通过表型可塑性迅速产生。然而,可塑性的极限以及它是否足以维持局部适应(甚至导致不适应)尚不清楚。冬季降水增加已被证明会导致物候延迟,并相应地导致哥伦比亚地松鼠()的年度适应度下降。我们利用该物种的自然物候变化(跨越海拔高度),更好地评估了出蛰日期的表型可塑性程度以及出蛰日期与个体年度适应度之间的关系。我们将互惠迁移实验与跨越海拔高度约 500 米的两个种群的自然监测相结合。两个种群中的个体都对春季温度和冬季降水表现出可塑性。迁移个体调整其出蛰日期以接近其适应种群中的个体,但与居民的出蛰日期有明显差异。在年度适应度方面,各组之间没有差异,一年内也没有出蛰日期的选择。因此,表型可塑性足以使个体对广泛的环境梯度做出反应,但出蛰日期的变化对年度适应度的影响还需要进一步研究。